Simply Economics

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Synopsis

A weekly economic recap of U.S. market activity and events.

Episodes

  • UP 243: Status quo for Fed and SNB vaccine war for UK-EU

    UP 243: Status quo for Fed and SNB; 'vaccine war' for UK-EU

    23/03/2021 Duration: 30min

    Wild bumps for US data are due to comparison distortions, an effect that is expected to be temporary and which would not derail Federal Reserve plans for extended stimulus. Steady policy for the Swiss National Bank, given a falling franc, is also the expectation. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender also discuss the UK's performance amid developing tensions with the EU over vaccine production and availability.

  • UP 242: The Fed and BoE likely to hold policy steady vaccine issues cloud Eurozone prospects

    UP 242: The Fed and BoE likely to hold policy steady; vaccine issues cloud Eurozone prospects

    16/03/2021 Duration: 29min

    Despite the recent rise in long rates, neither the Federal Reserve nor the Bank of England are likely to make any QE adjustments. Covid cases have been coming down and vaccination rates going up in both the US and UK, in sharp contrast to the Eurozone where the outlook is becoming more uncertain.

  • UP 240: Inflation climbing, yields jumping, policy in question

    UP 240: Inflation climbing, yields jumping, policy in question

    04/03/2021 Duration: 35min

    With vaccines rolling out and Covid cases coming down, our team updates the outlook for inflation and long-term interest rates and what it may or may not mean for any changes in central bank policy.

  • UP 239: Inflation up, rates up how to communicate policy change

    UP 239: Inflation up, rates up; how to communicate policy change

    23/02/2021 Duration: 24min

    Inflation may still be well below target but it is on the rise as are long-term interest rates. How these factors are affecting the financial markets and monetary policy and what they mean for central-bank communication strategy are points of this week's discussion.

  • UP 238: QE as means to control exchange rates

    UP 238: QE as means to control exchange rates

    16/02/2021 Duration: 39min

    This week's topic is whether central banks may begin to increase or decrease QE as a means of controlling exchange rates and the related risks that such action might bring to financial market stability.

  • UP 237: The end of low inflation?

    UP 237: The end of low inflation?

    09/02/2021 Duration: 30min

    Inflation expectations in the financial markets are rising quickly in contrast to actual inflation measures which are still subdued.

  • UP 236: Regional round-up and Covid-19 vaccination rates - the new forward-looking economic recovery metric

    UP 236: Regional round-up and Covid-19 vaccination rates - the new forward-looking economic recovery metric

    03/02/2021 Duration: 31min

    Brian Jackson and Jeremy Hawkins pull together the latest economic trends and discuss the importance to financial markets of the relative pace of the vaccine rollout.

  • UP 235: Updates on the latest data and policy outlooks

    UP 235: Updates on the latest data and policy outlooks

    26/01/2021 Duration: 27min

    Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender assess the latest economic data from Europe and the US, including a sharp drop in UK retail indications and sharp gains for US home prices. GDP outlooks are also discussed as well as issues at play for coming central bank meetings.

  • UP 234: Asian data improving as Europe struggles US labor market weak

    UP 234: Asian data improving as Europe struggles; US labor market weak

    19/01/2021 Duration: 29min

    Our duo of Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender round-up recent data and discuss the outlook for pending data and upcoming central bank announcements. Themes include weakness in the US labor market, ECB lending worries as well as the separation between assessments of current conditions and expectations for future recovery.

  • UP 233: US job weakness severe and skewed Covid updates from Europe

    UP 233: US job weakness severe and skewed; Covid updates from Europe

    12/01/2021 Duration: 22min

    Our team discusses the latest employment news from both the US and Canada, as well Covid counts and restrictions in Europe and what it may mean for first-quarter activity.

  • UP 231: 2020 in review: Takeaways from a tumultuous year

    UP 231: 2020 in review: Takeaways from a tumultuous year

    22/12/2020 Duration: 08min

    With much of the global hospitality sector hit by Covid-19 restrictions, takeaways have been a lifesaver for many cafes, pubs and restaurants in 2020. But throughout the year, there’s also been a number of interesting takeaways to be had from how policymakers and financial markets have responded to the coronavirus pandemic. Jeremy Hawkins takes a look at some of the most significant.

  • UP 230: Central bank round-up: some moves possible but no action likely

    UP 230: Central bank round-up: some moves possible but no action likely

    15/12/2020 Duration: 27min

    Balancing between near-term weakness and medium-term prospects of vaccination relief, the Federal Reserve is not expected to make any policy moves at this week's meeting. And as long as Brexit remains up in the air, neither is the Bank of England though should a no-deal emerge, the bank could take pre-emptive action. Also meeting this week will be the Swiss National Bank whose easing bias, given stability in the Swiss franc, isn't likely to be tested, as well as the Bank of Japan where QE extension is a possibility.

  • UP 229: Final Brexit talks, ECB decision to be early keys for 2021

    UP 229: Final Brexit talks, ECB decision to be early keys for 2021

    09/12/2020 Duration: 30min

    The post-Brexit world is imminent but has yet to take shape. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender discuss what various outcomes might mean for currencies and also discuss possible outcomes for next week's slate of central bank meetings and their possible effects on the markets.

  • UP 228: Covid-19 vaccines to the rescue as global growth stutters

    UP 228: Covid-19 vaccines to the rescue as global growth stutters

    02/12/2020 Duration: 29min

    The impending arrival of a Covid-19 vaccine continues to underpin global stock markets despite mounting evidence of weak fourth quarter GDP in Europe and some signs of slowing activity in the U.S. Geopolitical issues are also discussed as a possible threat to the economic recovery in parts of the Asia/Pacific region.

  • UP 227: Fiscal frustration and the threat to recovery

    UP 227: Fiscal frustration and the threat to recovery

    24/11/2020 Duration: 11min

    Jeremy Hawkins takes a look at the state of the recovery in the major economies and warns that future prospects could be seriously damaged by emerging disputes between and amongst fiscal and monetary policymakers.

  • UP 226: US outperforming European fiscal policy in doubt

    UP 226: US outperforming; European fiscal policy in doubt

    17/11/2020 Duration: 27min

    Strength in retail sales and housing as well as business investment appear to be giving the US an edge at least relative to Europe. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender discuss the latest economic data as well as the very latest updates on European fiscal stimulus and, not least, what is supposed to be the final act for Brexit.

  • UP 224: Election quandary ups US stimulus doubts RBA cut raises negative-rate talk

    UP 224: Election quandary ups US stimulus doubts; RBA cut raises negative-rate talk

    10/11/2020 Duration: 24min

    The unknown outcome of the US election may be increasing the risk that new fiscal stimulus will either be limited or delayed. Our panel also discusses the Reserve Bank of Australia's move this week to cut interest rates and whether it may be anticipating increasing stimulus, perhaps negative rates, from other central banks including the European Central Bank and Bank of England both of which are facing a rising tide of Covid infections.

  • UP 225: Vaccine game changer when to withdraw stimulus

    UP 225: Vaccine game changer; when to withdraw stimulus

    10/11/2020 Duration: 23min

    Monday's announcement of a breakthrough vaccine promises perhaps a timely turnaround for the global economy, in turn raising questions whether central banks will begin the delicate policy shift to stimulus withdrawal. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender also discuss the latest implications of the US election as well as the immediate economic outlook which, given new restrictions underway in Europe, may not be positive at all.

  • UP 223: Global stimulus posing future risks markets stable, growth struggling

    UP 223: Global stimulus posing future risks; markets stable, growth struggling

    20/10/2020 Duration: 30min

    Financial markets, including currencies, are showing no dislocations despite surging global debt and aggressively stimulative monetary policy. And even more aggressive policy may in store amid the possibility that the general weakness of the economic recovery will force yet more central banks to adopt negative policy rates.

  • UP 222: Market risk and the EU summit

    UP 222: Market risk and the EU summit

    13/10/2020 Duration: 31min

    What to expect or not to expect from the EU leaders' summit is this week's feature, one that poses possible and immediate risks to UK assets. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender also discuss worldwide debt, worldwide disinflation, Greek bonds and global growth forecasts.

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