Trend Following With Michael Covel

My guest today is Toby Crabel, a tennis player who is now a commodities trader. In 2005, the Financial Times called Crabel "the most well-known trader on the counter-trend side". The topic is commodity trading. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Crabel's history as a pro tennis player Longevity and consistency in tennis and trading Where Crabel stands with the total number of systems he employs The source of Crabel's profits and the philosophy behind it Price action Winning and losing volatility Why Crabel needs price movement and volume The idea of price shocks and the importance of being aware of them The process of moving from high drawdowns to a much lower drawdown The importance of diversity Early lightbulb moments that informed Crabel's trading style Crabel's experience with Victor Niederhoffer How the philosophy of Objectivism has informed Crabel's life The liquidity of futures markets The importance of persistence Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, a

My guest today is Alex Greyserman, Chief Scientist at managed futures firm ISAM. He is also a professor at Columbia University. He is a member of the ISAM Systematic Investment Committee. He has 25 years of experience in the Managed Futures industry, having starting initially as Research Director at Mint Investment Management Co. The topic is Trend Following. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Idea of young college graduates writing articles about the death of trend following while firms like Greyserman's continue to have tremendous success Alternatives to thinking only 'long stocks' Greyserman's first meeting with Larry Hite and how they have come to have such a career together Why trend following is about more than getting on the right side of the S&P trade The difference between cross-sectional momentum and time series momentum The phrase "crisis alpha" and why trend following does well in times of crisis The cost of not having trend following in your portfolio Benchmarking and diver

My guest today is Anthony Todd, the CEO of Aspect Capital, one of the most successful managed futures trend following firms. Todd co-founded Aspect in September 1997. Before that, he was with AHL. The topic is Trend Following. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Why prices aren't random Finding an inefficiency that the academic financial community refuses to acknowledge The idea of "predictable" patterns in the market The desire to know static positions How crowd behavior drives trends Addressing misconceptions Using fundamentals in a systematic way Defining Todd's medium-term style of trend following Why "it's less about the genius of the trade and more about the repeatability of the approach" How long you can be in a particular market before you give up on it Client understanding of trend following drawdowns The phraseology of "crisis alpha" The culture that Todd has built at Aspect Todd's advice to young entrepreneurs. Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, an

My guest today is Jason Fried, the co-founder and President of 37signals, a privately-held Chicago-based company committed to building the best web-based tools possible with the least number of features necessary. The topic is his book Rework. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: The first dollar Fried made online and other formative experiences Keeping business simple Making something more valuable than the dollars people give you The intimacy of exchanging money The idea of doing less than your competitors to beat them Building an audience The "real world" Why an MBA program might not teach you much about entrepreneurism Corporate structure Focusing on what will not change Zen and the moment of right now Not focusing too far into the future Fried's experience with Jeff Bezos Idea of improvisation or "winging it" in business Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psych

My guest today is Roland Austrup, the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer at Integrated managed Futures, part of the IAM group out of Canada. Austrup's firm comes at trading from a slightly different perspective: very systematic, but also using fundamentals systematically. The topic is trading. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: How Austrup got started in the industry, and whether he was always a "quant" thinker Early experiences with Ed Seykota Whether Austrup uses a systematic use of fundamentals or a discretionary use of fundamentals Why systematic can be frightening to certain people Managing risk and the return to risk profile Why Austrup targets a downside volatility of 13% Why "the returns will take care of themselves" if you manage risk correctly Trading trends and not market noise Being on the right side of a trend The phrase "equity-like returns" Reviewing trend following performance in recent years Why Austrup's strategy is not based on prediction The importance

My guest today is Kathryn Kaminski, the deputy managing director the institute for financial research (SIFR) Stockholm Sweden. She's also a contributor to CME Group. She earned her PhD at the MIT Sloan School of Management. At the MIT Laboratory for Financial Engineering, she conducted research on financial heuristics in collaboration with Professor Andrew W. Lo. Her new book, with Alex Greyserman, is "Trend Following with Managed Futures: The Search for Crisis Alpha." The topic is Trend Following. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Survivorship bias Kaminski's background and upbringing Convergent risk-taking strategies and divergent risk-taking strategies Social networking as an example of risk Apple as an example of convergent/divergent The importance of failure The efficient market hypothesis, the idea that trend following is "voodoo", and the lack of transparency in trend following Critics of trend following Kaminski's "ah-ha" moment with trend following Why trend following works in tim

My guest today is Vineer Bhansali, the managing director and portfolio manager at PIMCO. His most recent book is "Tail Risk Hedging". He has 24 years of investment experience and holds a Ph.D. in theoretical particle physics from Harvard University. The topic is Trend Following. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: "Trend Following Through The Rates Cycle" Trend following in the classical sense How trend following started to become part of the discussion at PIMCO Introducing new ideas to PIMCO, corporate culture, and to clients The three hypotheses tested in "Trend Following Through The Rates Cycle" Currency trading and trend following returns Why larger trend following shops may have trouble getting into smaller markets Trend following across a diversified portfolio and classical trend following approaches Connecting Bhansali's hobbies to the quantitative world Structure and thinking in terms of code Imagining and building simulations Being distribution aware Why being at all-time highs is n

My guests today are Joey Reiman and John Brenkus. Reiman, who runs Brighthouse, has been called the "father of ideation". He's emerged as the subject matter expert in the area of purpose inspired leadership, marketing, and innovation. His breakthrough purpose methodology and frameworks have been adopted by the likes of the Boston Consulting Group, Procter & Gamble, The Coca-Cola Company, McDonald's, KPMG, and many other Fortune 500 companies across the globe. As an adjunct professor at the Goizueta School of Business at Emory University, he teaches tomorrow's executives his revolutionary theories and applications for purpose-inspired profit.  Brenkus is the host of the ESPN show, Sport Science. Sport Science is an ongoing television series that explores the science and engineering underlying athletic endeavors.  The topics are marketing and sports science. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Covel and Reiman discuss Reiman's background and mission in life; looking for meaning; figuring o

My guest today is Mark Broadie, the Carson Family Professor of Business and Vice Dean at the Columbia Business School. His research focuses on quantitative finance and sports analytics. His golf research has appeared in academic journals and many golf publications. He developed the new strokes gained approach to analyze the performance of amateur and professional golfers and worked with the PGA Tour on their implementation of the strokes gained putting stat.  The topic is his book Every Shot Counts: Using the Revolutionary Strokes Gained Approach to Improve Your Golf Performance and Strategy. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: How he became, in Covel's words, the "Bill James of golf" How Broadie connected his finance work to the sport of golf Why certain golfers win Why approach shots are the most important "Drive for show, putt for dough" How Broadie started, the software he used, and how he got better data Whether Broadie had any sense of where the data might go when he first collected it

My guest today is Larry Swedroe, a Buckingham Asset Management principal. He is also a principal and co-founder of BAM Advisor Services, LLC, and serves as the director of research for both entities. Swedroe has authored or co-authored fourteen books and comes at investing from an evidence-based approach. The topic is outside the box market perspectives. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Forecasters and prediction The three types of forecasters Confirmation bias How your political affiliation might change your willingness to listen to forecasts Value perspective vs. momentum perspective The anomaly of momentum The evidence-based thinking approach Momentum trading in 2008 How Swedroe prepares for the unexpected Not treating the unlikely like it's impossible Managing your risk Process vs. outcome The equity risk premium and bear markets Commonplace crises Planning ahead Diversification attempts to get outside of equities Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and

Please enjoy my monologue A Million Words and Justifications with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive. --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast

My guest today is Richard Lewis, a cross-cultural expert who has been studying language and communication his entire career. He's traveled to 130+ countries and speaks eleven different languages. The topics are his books When Cultures Collide: Leading Across Cultures and When Teams Collide: Managing the International Team Successfully. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: How Lewis' love affair with language started The best way to start learning a language Travel as a "magic elixir" of sorts The Lewis model Cultural differences in language, and what Lewis means by linear-active, multi-active, and reactive The idea of losing face in the context of cross-cultural communication Microculture and macroculture Cross-cultural teams vs. homogenous teams Normal and abnormal in a cultural context Paperwork and punctuality in different cultures Why the linear-active person confronts with logic, the multi-active person confronts emotionally, and the reactive person is never confronting Why there's much

My guest today is Joel Mokyr, an economic historian at Northwestern University. He focuses on technological progress, and how it affects growth. From Mokyr's perspective, we haven't seen anything yet. He's not trying to predict what will happen next; he's just confident and ready that big things will continue to happen. The topic is technology. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Define technology The notion of playing God with technology How technology and economic growth are intertwined Why screwing up is part of technology The acceleration of technology New ways of measuring growth Anesthesia and antibiotics as technologies and imagining new technologies as revolutionary as them Moving from a wheat and steel economy into an information economy The factory, the separation between firm and household, and the Industrial Revolution The death of distance Why technology is often not reflected in the GDP Solving the language barrier through technology Why the global acceptance of the English lan

My guest today is Guy Kawasaki. For those of you that pay attention to being an entrepreneur, Kawasaki's books have been invaluable over the last decade. Currently, he is the chief evangelist of Canva, an online graphic design tool. Formerly, he was an advisor to the Motorola business unit of Google and chief evangelist of Apple. The topic is entrepreneur. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Why being a consultant or an investment banker are two of the worst first jobs you can get Working in sales, and Kawasaki's early experience in the jewelry business Some of the most valuable attributes of a good salesman Marketing, social media, and why you'd want to have a rabid fan with fifteen followers rather than just another blurb on the back of your book from the so-called big name Why a book review in The New York Times isn't as important as it used to be The Amazon and Hachette conflict, and why Amazon is still the best thing to happen to authors in a long time The two types of people in the wor

My guest today is Rande Howell. Howell has a therapeutic background combined with personal coaching in the fields of human potential and leadership. He has fifteen years of practice as a licensed professional counselor with a Masters in Counseling. The topic is counseling. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: What the performance mind is in regards to trading Trading, emotions, and uncertainty Why irrational pessimism is deadly in trading Emotional regulation and mastering emotions The blurry line between the casino and trading, particularly in Asia Euphoria vs. fear in a trading context Why what you're afraid of owns you Jungian archetypes The Myers-Briggs instrument Biological threat vs. psychological discomfort The mistake of using trading to measure your worth Getting your emotions right but your strategy wrong Why success in one endeavor doesn't necessarily mean success in trading The importance of patience The panther vs. the African lion Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TRE

Please enjoy my monologue The Health and Longevity Episode with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive. --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast c

Please enjoy my monologue The S&P 500 Trading System with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive. --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast con

My guest today is Laurie Santos, a professor of psychology and cognitive sciences at Yale University. Her research explores the evolutionary origins of the human mind by comparing the cognitive abilities of human and non-human primates. Santos is able to look at monkeys and their behavior in markets and money, and see the similarities with humans. The topic is cognitive abilities. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Santos' early "ah-ha" moments Teaching monkeys about currencies Whether the monkey economy is as irrational as ours The endowment effect How monkeys' behavior in markets quantitatively matches human behavior Whether some monkeys took to the experimental economy better than others Mistakes and predictable errors Why humans might be uniquely irrational when it comes to enjoying what we pay more for Vernon Smith's work Relationships between Santos' work and the financial crisis of 2008 Bubbles, monkeys, and Daniel Kahneman The "G.I. Joe fallacy" Why we have trouble accepting cogniti

My guest today is Robert Aumann, the fourth Nobel Prize winner to appear on this podcast. Aumann is an Israeli-American mathematician, and a member of the United States National Academy of Sciences. He is a professor at the Center for the Study of Rationality in the Hebrew University of Jerusalem in Israel. The topic is game theory. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Conflict and cooperation through game theory analysis World via his game theory perspective Meeting John Nash and Aumann's early background What game theory is trying to accomplish The economic definition of rationality The idea of a strategy matrix The world champions of peace and the best way to maintain peace The 2008-09 bailouts from Aumann's perspective and a game theory outlook Behavioral economics Game theory, diplomats, and the Cuban Missile Crisis The existence of nuclear weapons and the Cold War Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast list

My guest today is Gregory Morris, the Sr. Vice President, Chief Technical Analyst, and Chairman of the Investment Committee for Stadion Money Management, LLC. He also serves as the chairman of the Station Trust Board. In this capacity Greg educates institutional and individual clients on the merits of technical analysis and why Stadion utilizes a technical rules-based model. Greg oversees the management of over $5.5 Billion in assets in six mutual funds, separate accounts, and retirement plans. The topic is his book Investing with the Trend: A Rules-based Approach to Money Management. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Morris' history as a US Navy fighter pilot The checklist and how foundational it is to trading How Morris had his first exposure and understanding of technical analysis Russian Roulette and trading Risk vs. uncertainty Process and predictions Having a set of daily actions Learning lessons through failure Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and