Trend Following With Michael Covel

My guest today is Dennis Gartman, the editor and publisher of The Gartman Letter. Gartman appears on CNBC, ROB-TV and Bloomberg television, discussing commodities and the capital markets, and speaks before various associations and trade groups around the world. The topic is outside the box market perspectives. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: How Gartman first got started Chicago trading in the late 70's to the mid 80's Why you should never add to a losing position Buying strength and selling weakness Systems from Gartman's perspective, and keeping your systems simple Being patient with winning trades and impatient with losers Gartman's daily grind and process Mass psychology, efficient markets, and behavioral economics Gartman's thoughts on the market today and geopolitical events How we hear about geopolitical events today compared to the past Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Inves

Please enjoy my monologue Misinformed View On Trend Following with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive. --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcas

My guest today is Leo Melamed, a pioneer of financial futures, currencies, and stock indexes. Melamed became Chairman of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in 1969. In 1972, under his leadership, the CME created the International Monetary Market (IMM), the world's first financial futures exchange, and launched currency futures. He is currently Chairman Emeritus of CME Group (formerly the Chicago Mercantile Exchange). The topic is his book Leo Melamed: Escape to the Futures. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Overcoming odds China's futures markets The middle class in China Melamed's experience meeting Milton Friedman and some of the lessons learned Melamed's early experiences escaping Nazi-controlled Poland, and eventually going to work for Merrill Lynch Stock futures The importance of speculation Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-maki

My guest today is John H. Cochrane, the AQR Capital Management Distinguished Service Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. The topic is Chicago school economics. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Warren Buffett's quote that he "would have made a fortune" if the banks weren't bailed out Crony capitalism Why "a good Bear failure may have saved us from a bad Lehman failure" The cost of regulation Uber, taxi service, and regulation Why commodities keep getting cheaper and cheaper, but people with expertise keep getting more and more expensive The idea of discretion Healthcare Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your li

My guest today is Meir Statman, the Glenn Klimek Professor of Finance at the Leavey School of Business, Santa Clara University. His research focuses on behavioral finance. He attempts to understand how investors and managers make financial decisions and how these decisions are reflected in financial markets. Meir's latest book, "Finance for Normal People: How Investors and Markets behave" has been published by Oxford University Press. The topic is his book What Investors Really Want: Know What Drives Investor Behavior and Make Smarter Financial Decisions. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: How we make decisions, and how these decisions are reflected in markets What investors want besides the utilitarian aspect of money Philanthropy and status Why Madoff's clients' own greed helped them fall into a trap Envy and happiness The fear of losing and the fear of missing out Mental accounting Statman's drivers and early influences Libertarianism vs. paternalism Social Security and mandatory retirem

My guest today is Terry Burnham, an economist who studies the biological and evolutionary basis of human behavior. He has a Ph.D. in Business Economics from Harvard University, a Masters from the MIT Sloan School with a concentration in finance. Terry was a professor at the Harvard Kennedy School, the University of Michigan, and the Harvard Business School. His non-academic experiences include working briefly for Goldman, Sachs & Co., being the chief financial officer for Progenics Pharmaceuticals , a start-up biotechnology company, and being the director of portfolio management for Acadian Asset Management, a quantitative equity manager. The topic is his book Mean Markets and Lizard Brains: How to Profit from the New Science of Irrationality. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Burnham removed $1 million from his Bank of America account and said "I don't trust the banks" The two ways to think about risk Separating the ideas of luck and skill The lizard brain and how it relates back to o

My guest today is Andy Puddicombe, the founder of Headspace, an award-winning digital health platform that provides guided meditation sessions. Puddicombe is a former Buddhist monk with a degree in Circus Arts. The topic is meditation. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Puddicombe's background and how he came into the position he is in today Some traumatic events which may have had an influence on Puddicombe's decision to become a monk Covel's own meditation experience Comparing mindfulness and meditation The importance of a daily practice Stress and the science behind meditation Neuroplasticity The wandering mind and unhappiness The idea of the present moment, and how traders that embrace the present moment have an advantage Intuition Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are

My guest today is Sally Hogshead, a New York Times bestselling author, National Speakers Association Hall of Fame speaker, chief executive officer of How to Fascinate (Fascinate, Inc) and a former advertising executive. The topic is her book How The World Sees You: Discover Your Highest Value Through The Science of Fascination. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Fascination and paying attention The seven different categories of things that fascinate us What those who fascinate have in common Developing a personality assessment that shows how the world sees you Understanding your own personal branding Analyzing Michael Covel's own fascination survey Not being a commodity Why if you're not generating a negative reaction from someone, you're probably not fascinating anyone Why you don't want to be vanilla ice cream Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, polit

My guest today is Bucky Isaacson, one of the early pioneers of managed futures. In 1969, he helped to develop one of the first computerized trading systems. He's been involved in the managed futures industry ever since, particularly in Asia and the US. The topic is managed futures. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Fractured state of conferences these days What it was like to be involved with a group developing a computerized trading system in 1969 Being with one of the earliest incarnations of a managed futures firm Trading attitudes Marketing and doing business in Asia Differences in business practices between Asian countries Refco, MF Global, PFG and other aberrations that have damaged the Chicago futures brand Madoff as a marketer Raising the initial capital to start a trading venture How to differentiate yourself from a marketing perspective Growth in the managed futures industry Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ mi

My guest today is Megan McArdle, a Bloomberg View columnist who writes on economics, business and public policy. She founded the blog "Asymmetrical Information". The topic is her book The Up Side of Down: Why Failing Well Is the Key to Success. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: "Trophy kids" and taking the monkey bars away The idea of a regulator out there trying to guarantee our safety Why the companies that make it aren't the ones with the best strategic plan–it's the ones that execute (and fail well) The power of experimentation Nobel winner Vernon Smith and experimentation The idea of learning in crisis How sunk costs are difficult for a large part of the population to grasp Van Halen, errors, and M&M's Normative error Small, manageable risks Forager morality vs. farmer morality A story about Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC) Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics,

My guest today is Cullen Roche, the founder of Orcam Financial Group, a financial services company based out of San Diego. He also runs a very well-known blog called Pragmatic Capitalism (pragcap.com).  The topic is his book Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Know About Money and Finance. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Entrepreneurism Investing in yourself The advantages of starting a blog Why the word "pragmatic" is a word that has become central to Roche's universe Eliminating your biases Why the US going bankrupt is a myth The myth that central banks exist to enrich bankers Dr. Laurie Santos and her work with monkeys Bringing risk down to something we can measure Warren Buffett Hedging your bets Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately

My guest today is Mike Harris, the President of Campbell & Company (3B+ AUM), the systematic trading firm started by Keith Campbell (Campbell was featured in Covel's first book Trend Following). The topic is Trend Following. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Systematic trading in the early 70's Education about managed futures Correlation with other markets and managers Trading diverse markets Focusing on data rather than the fundamentals Why "commodities" and "CTA" are misnomers Why Harris wouldn't fly down to Brazil to investigate fundamental information on the coffee market Risk management, drawdowns, and taking small losses; dealing with uncertainty and helping clients to understand the uncertain nature of trading How human emotion often gets in the way of profitable trading The efficient market hypothesis and behavioral finance Continuity and how that has been thought through at Campbell & Company The Sharpe ratio and why it isn't the best way to look at systematic traders Why

My guest today is Tyler Cowen, an American economist, columnist and blogger. He is a professor at George Mason University, where he holds the Holbert L. Harris chair in the economics department. He hosts the economics blog Marginal Revolution, together with co-author Alex Tabarrok. The topic is economics. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Sabermetrics and the new idea that we will be judged by numbers Cowen's early experience studying under Nobel Prize winner Thomas Schelling The notion of thinking in terms of paradoxes Why we're moving from the 1% to the 15% "Average is over" and why Singapore and Israel are the two places in the world where this has come true first Problems because of "average is over" in Singapore Pure free markets Thinking about why past regulations have failed How computers change us Globalization, where things are headed, and what we should be prepared for Zero marginal product workers Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud

My guest today is William Poundstone, an American author, columnist, and skeptic. He has written a number of books including the Big Secrets series and a biography of Carl Sagan. The topic is his book Fortune's Formula: The Untold Story of the Scientific Betting System That Beat the Casinos and Wall Street. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Claude Shannon The connection between Al Capone The Kelly formula, bookmaking, and the telephone industry Bell Labs and information theory Why, when betting, if there's a small chance of losing everything, you will eventually lose everything Criticisms of the Kelly criterion Ed Thorp, blackjack, and card counting Long-Term Capital Management Martingale vs. Kelly Early development of the Black-Scholes formula Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend fol

My guest today is Perry Kaufman, an American systematic trader, index developer, and quantitative financial theorist. He is considered a leading expert in the development of fully algorithmic trading programs. The topic is systematic trading. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: How Kaufman came to the idea of 100% algorithmic trading systems The difference between being systematic and being automated Optimization vs. validation The biggest advantages of testing Why discretion is not part of Kaufman's toolbox The problem of tail events Why discipline is the most important characteristic of a systematic trader The "loose pants fit everyone" philosophy Preparing yourself for uncertainty Comparisons between risk management and risk measurement The Sharpe ratio High volatility trades vs. low volatility Why Kaufman places equal weight on both risk management and the underlying system Systematic trading in established mature markets vs. emerging markets Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of

My guest today is Ben Hunt, the Chief Risk Officer at Salient Partners. Salient is a 19B AUM manager based in Houston, Texas. As Chief Risk Officer, Hunt writes the Epsilon Theory, viewing capital markets through the lenses of game theory and history. The topic is Epsilon Theory. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Power of the crowd watching the crowd Game theory Having a profound agnosticism about what the future holds The difference between risk and uncertainty in the context of game theory The Panopticon and the chilling effect of being watched The "common knowledge game" and the missionary The island of the green-eyed tribe Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you

My guest today is Andrew Huszar, a Senior Fellow at Rutgers Business School and also a former Morgan Stanley managing director. In 2009, he managed the Federal Reserve's 1.25 trillion dollar mortgage-backed security purchase program. The topic is the direction of the Federal Reserve. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Looking at the short term Black swans Huszar's history and how he came to work for the Federal Reserve The changing of the banking model in the US from the 1980's to the late 2000's Quantitative easing Why Huszar ultimately left the Fed at the beginning of 2011 How the Fed has become over five times bigger in recent history The current source of Wall Street money The idea of an overly financialized US economy The need for long-term structural changes in the US Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, e

My guests today are Hersh Shefrin and Arvid Hoffmann.  Hersh Shefrin has done pioneering work in behavioral finance and is the author of Beyond Greed and Fear. Hoffmann is a colleague of Shefrin. He is a Professor of Finance at Maastricht University in the Netherlands. The topic is their paper, Technical Analysis and Individual Investors. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Covel and Shefrin discuss how Shefrin came to know that behavioral finance was his path; the two-system framework; the connection to behavioral and eating disorders; the disposition effect; when emotion and reason are in conflict; "transferring your assets" vs. "selling a loss"; distinguishing between rules and discretion; how we stick with rules for ourselves given the context of our humanity; the psychological pitfalls of the 2008 financial crisis; the inevitability of market crises; Minsky and Keynes; the psychology of Keynesian economics; and human ideas surrounding uncertainty. With Arvid Hoffmann, Covel discusses th

Please enjoy my monologue An Agenda Or An Acting Job with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive. --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast convers

My guest today is Mark Miller, an American computer scientist. He is known for his work as one of the participants in the 1979 hypertext project known as Project Xanadu; for inventing Miller columns; and the open-source coordinator of the E programming language. He also designed the Caja compiler. Miller is a Senior Research Fellow at the Foresight Institute. The topic is computer science. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Property rights Hernando de Soto Bitcoin and digital trust "Smart contracts" Why a contract is like a board game Game theory 3rd World infrastructure How program code can become a contract A closer look at "possession is nine-tenths of the law" Whether the Turing Test was just passed Defining the term "singularity", and the multiple singularities of the past A.I. and nanotechnology How Miller's work relates to markets The history of hypertext Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens si