Trend Following With Michael Covel

My guest today is Bryan Caplan, an American economist and professor of economics at George Mason University, research fellow at the Mercatus Center, adjunct scholar at the Cato Institute, and blogger for EconLog. He works in public choice theory. His books include The Myth of the Rational Voter and Selfish Reasons to Have More Kids. He has also written extensively on open borders and pacifism. The topic is economics. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Voting, rationality Defining "rational irrationality" What voting patterns in America might look like if the American stock market looked like the Japanese stock market Economic growth in benevolent dictatorships vs. republics like the USA The anti-poverty program in China Caplan's view on immigration and its effect on the economy The case for more kids, and why Caplan was so passionate and so inspired as to put out a book on the subject Why genetics matter more than the style in which you raise your kids Thomas Piketty's "Capital in the Twent

My guest today is Tom Basso, the trader most famously known as "Mr. Serenity" in Jack Schwager's "New Market Wizards". Basso, now retired from managing client money, was president and founder of Trendstat Capital Management. Basso became a registered investment advisor in 1980, a registered commodities advisor in 1984, and was elected to the board of the National Futures Association in 1998. Today, he is a private trader. The topic is Trend Following. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: 50% drop in oil and why trend followers have done especially well with this price movement Why people like to blame speculators, and the value of speculation; emotional rushes and emotional devastation Mentally rehearsing catastrophic events Focusing 1,000 trades into the future Separating your trading from your political opinion Trend following and behavioral economics The importance of not letting your trading define you Basso's advice to newcomers to the CTA industry Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the ho

My guest today is Mark Manson, an author and personal development consultant. Manson has worked with thousands of people from over 20 countries and his writing offers a different take on the self-help genre. Manson calls it "self help from a first person perspective". He has sold over 15,000 copies of his book "Models: Attract Women Through Honesty" and almost 400,000 people read his site each month. He's been published and quoted on CNN, Huffington Post, Business Insider, Yahoo! News, The Sydney Morning Herald and a variety of other publications. He is also the CEO and Founder of Infinity Squared Media LLC. The topic is personal development. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Why people are such ass—– on the internet Internet communication vs. real world communication Becoming desensitized to the internet How Manson came to his entrepreneurial path and how he was inspired by "The 4-Hour Workweek" Location independence and how travel has changed Manson Consumerism in America Having an exces

Please enjoy my monologue Crude Oil Folly with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive. --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!

My guest today is Charles Faulkner, an author, trader, and an expert on modeling the knowledge and performance of exceptional individuals. He was originally featured in "The New Market Wizards" by Jack Schwager. The topic is trading psychology. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: The notion of fictional people and why famous figures in finance are "fictional" The importance of narratives, stories, and metaphors The halo effect and deluding ourselves The difference between a story and a strategy The nature of independent thinking; herd behavior Ego, ignorance, and authority The five different types of minds: the experiencing mind, the imaginative mind, the reasoning mind, the reflective mind, and the generative mind System one and system two Why words don't change people but experience does Experience base and the difference between amateur and professional traders The two kinds of market wizards Language in the context of the five different types of minds The importance of asking "how" does

My guests today are Zbigniew Hermaszewski and Natasha Reeve-Gray, two of the four founding partners of Altis Partners–a very successful systematic and primarily trend following money management firm. The topic is Trend Following. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Covel's recent experiences traveling in Asia The advantages of location independence Early triggers that led Hermaszewski and Reeve-Gray into the systematic trading world and away from the efficient market hypothesis Why Hermaszewskii was motivated to go down the particular path he went down The advantages of a physics background when applied to trading Looking for predicability in the markets How Altis uses predictability in the context of their world The four broad types of market behavior in Altis' program Trend following and persistence Inter-market relationships Why there are no "manual" inputs in Altis' systematic program Portfolio construction and why Altis is different from its peers Applying the same models to all markets

My guest today is Jim Rogers, an American businessman, investor and author currently based in Singapore. He is the Chairman of Rogers Holdings and Beeland Interests, Inc. He was the co-founder of the Quantum Fund and creator of the Rogers International Commodities Index (RICI). Rogers does not consider himself a member of any school of economic thought, but has acknowledged that his views best fit the label of Austrian School of economics. The topic is investment. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Why it shows that the kind of people that travel are the kind of people you want in your country Infrastructure in China Stereotypes of various countries in Asia China's military Current Fed policy in America What "can-do" spirit can do in a state of decline Why the next crisis might be worse than the last The importance of language skills Participating in big long-term bets with regard to countries Why, if he could, Rogers would put all of his money into North Korea Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COV

Please enjoy my monologue Michael Covel Monologue and Travis Jamison Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive. --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my ne

My guests today are Scot Billington and Jon Boorman. Billington is one of the managers of Covenant Capital along with Brince Wilford. Billington is the Chief Manager, Head Trader, and is responsible for all system development at Covenant. Boorman is the President and CEO of Broadsword Capital, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser in Charlotte, NC. Boorman has spent over two decades in global markets, witnessing first-hand some of the most tumultuous periods in financial history. Boorman started the Alpha Capture blog in January 2013 to keep a record of trading signals and market commentary, and demonstrate to a wider audience what could be achieved through trend following. The primary aim has always been to inform and educate. The topic is trading. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Covel and Billington discuss his firm's exceptional performance in September of 2014; why low volume and low volatility tend to be accompanied by low returns; whether all of Billington's trend following trading

My guest today is Emanuel Derman, a South African-born businessman and writer, best known as a quantitative analyst. Derman, who first came to the U.S. at age 21, in 1966, is currently a professor at Columbia University and Director of its program in financial engineering. Until recently he was also the Head of Risk and a partner at KKR Prisma Capital Partners, a fund of funds. The topics are his books My Life As A Quant: Reflections on Physics and Finance and Models Behaving Badly. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Why economics can be an 'incestuous' field Economics as a moral science Why all four of the US investment banks were not allowed to go by the wayside Derman's background and his PhD in theoretical physics Derman's early eye-opening experiences at Goldman Sachs Model building, and how Derman was indoctrinated into the world of model building The financial model and science and the physics model and science Short volatility models vs. long volatility models How one estimates risk

My guest today is Gabriele Oettingen, a Professor of Psychology at New York University and the University of Hamburg. Her research focuses on how we think about the future, and how this impacts cognition, emotion, and behavior. The topic is her book Rethinking Positive Thinking: Inside the New Science of Motivation. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Positive thinking, optimism and over-confidence How positive thinking can reign in your sense of urgency The effect of positive thinking on us from a scientific viewpoint Whether Oettingen views her work as an attack on the self-help industry Oettingen's process and how she views data The WOOP (Wish, Outcome, Obstacle, Plan) process Understanding each component part of WOOP "Ah-ha" moments in Oettingen's early development The idea of WOOP as mental contrasting Non-conscious processes Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics,

My guest today is Ewan Kirk, the head of Cantab Capital and has brought his firm from $30M AUM in 2006 to over $5B today. Kirk employs several strategies but clearly uses a trend following foundation. The topic is Trend Following. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: How consistent and predictable profits are the Holy Grail–you're never going to get there Kirk's background Why computer programming is "today's literacy" Standing out from the crowd Trend following in the European scene vs. America Weighting positions based on risk Talking to clients and explaining that losses are statistically inevitable Whether the demand for discretionary traders is waning How discretionary traders look at a trader like Kirk who is 100% systematic Why discretionary intervention in a systematic trading strategy disqualifies it from being truly systematic Proving a strategy as broken rather than proving that it's right Why randomness is everything Uncertainty and convictions about technique Capturing the realis

My guests today are Gerd Gigerenzer and Brian Wansink. Gigerenzer is currently director of the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition (ABC) at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development and director of the Harding Center for Risk Literacy. Wansink is the John Dyson Professor of Marketing and the Director of the Cornell Food and Brand Lab in the Department of Applied Economics and Management at Cornell University.  The topics are Gigerenzer's book Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions and Wansink's book Slim by Design: Mindless Eating Solutions for Everyday Life. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Covel and Gigerenzer discuss the differences between Daniel Kahneman and Gigerenzer's views; heuristics vs. statistics; the notion of medical check-ups, prostate cancer, and the PSA test; taking risks, and instincts vs. expert advice; relative vs. absolute risk; Benjamin Franklin's ledger, heuristics, and romance; intuition, facts, unconscious intelligence, and gut decisions; being risk sa

My guests today are Nigol Koulajian and Donald Wieczorek.  Nigol Koulajian's firm is Quest Partners, LLC and is approaching one billion AUM. Koulajian has a very interesting take on trend following–specifically his take on replicating famous trend following strategies. Donald Wieczorek is the Founder and President of Purple Valley Capital, Inc. He officially launched PVC and began managing client capital professionally using his systematic risk management strategy. He is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and is a member of the National Futures Association. The topic is Trend Following. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Koulajian and Covel discuss Koulajian's background and entrepreneurism within Lebanese culture; how Koulajian got his start, and how he found his way into the systematic strategies he employs today; the influence of Van Tharp; the importance of practices like transcendental meditation and yoga on the mental side of trading and in the context of Koulaji

My guests today are Doug Casey and Charles Hugh Smith. Casey is the founder and chairman of Casey Research, a provider of paid subscription newsletter services espousing libertarian viewpoints as the justification for the purchase of highly speculative microcap stocks, precious metals, and other investments. Smith is an American writer and blogger. He is the chief writer for the site "Of Two Minds". Started in 2005, this site has been listed No. 7 in CNBC's top alternative financial sites. Smith's economic works stress the value and efficacy of decentralizing power and wealth, the individual's power of self-determination and the value of community, which in his view has been diminished by the state.  The topics are state power and central planning. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Casey and Covel discuss what it's like having traveled to over 175 countries and where one can find social and economic liberty today in this world; the advantages of being a perpetual tourist; why Casey describ

My guest today is Christopher Cruden, Cruden has been in the trend following space for over 25 years. In 1988 he became a Director of Adam, Harding and Lueck Asset Management Ltd (AHL) in London, a famed trend following shop. He is currently the head of Insch Capital Management. The topic is Trend Following. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Why price is an unimpeachable fact Early "lightbulb" moments that brought Cruden to the style of trading he practices today The notion of going currency only Why Cruden's program is akin to a raincoat in bad weather Riding increased volatility and increased directional trending Getting clients to understand that you cannot force a system to make money Benchmark selection and time period selection Why the S&P 500 is a trading system; performance drivers The duration of trades Why if you can't measure it, you can't manage it How Cruden's strategy would change if Europe reverted back to before the introduction of the Euro How markets teach humility Wh

My guest today is Steven Kotler, an American bestselling author, journalist, and entrepreneur. His articles have appeared in over 70 publications, including The New York Times Magazine, LA Times, Wired, GQ, Discover, Popular Science, Outside, Men's Journal, Details and National Geographic Adventure. He is best known for his non-fiction books, including the New York Times bestseller Abundance, A Small Furry Prayer, and West of Jesus. The topic is his book The Rise of Superman: Decoding the Science of Ultimate Human Performance. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Synonyms for flow Flow in basketball and other sports Group flow Pattern recognition The neurological explanation for flow The four stages of flow Why flow is not just a binary state Spiritual experiences compared to flow states Brain activity during flow states; the "deep now" Getting to the flow state with drugs The flow state and the act of being on stage Why you need to take risks to get into flow Social fear, risk, and pain vs.

My guest today is Mark Rzepczynski, a Founder and Chief Investment Officer at AMPHI Capital Management. Prior to co-founding AMPHI Capital Management, he was the CEO of the Fund Group at FourWinds Capital Management, where he oversaw alternative investments. Rzepczynski was also President and Chief Investment Officer at John W. Henry & Co., an iconic Commodity Trading Advisor. He is on the Advisory Board of the Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst Association (CAIA), the Associate Editor of the Journal of Alternative Investments, and a former board member of the FIA Futures Industry Association. The topic is Trend Following. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Advantages of podcasting as a format over traditional media outlets Why prices are "primal" Prices as a heuristic Rzepczynski's ah-ha moment that brought him to the heuristic of price Why a complex education doesn't necessarily mean you should use a complex system Why knowing the transductive reasoning behind price movement is

My guests today are Alex Tabarrok and David Nott. Tabarrok is the co-author of the Marginal Revolution website. He's an economist at Covel's alma mater, George Mason University.  Nott is the president of The Reason Foundation–an organization that is all about free minds and free markets.  The topic is libertarianism. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Covel and Tabarrok discuss China and the importance of teaching Chinese to American children; the greatest anti-poverty program in the world; the difficulty of improving the infrastructure of the United States; regulation and innovation; interest groups; benevolent dictators; the need for a democracy in an information age; innovation in the current American education system; why the American education system is focused on getting you to work for the man; women in the American education system; innovation, intellectual property and patents; the cumulative properties of innovation; grounds for optimism in the United States when it comes to innov

My guests today are Frank Curzio of Stansberry & Associates and Robin Griffiths, the Chief Technical Strategist at ECU and formerly at HSBC. The topic is markets. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Covel and Curzio discuss how the fundamental guys justify all time highs in the equity market; the Shiller PE ratio; the importance of analyzing interest rates; Warren Buffett recent investments; what the Fed would do if we went down 30% today; why having a low interest rate environment creates a good situation for stocks; being prepared from a risk management perspective; Zero Interest Rate Policy, its effect on equities and bonds, and tail risk; comparing the environment today to the 1987 crash; hypothetical situations surrounding the S&P 500; exit strategies; and the 24-hour news cycle. Covel and Griffiths discuss how to use fundamentals in an age when interest rates are artificially controlled; Griffiths' history as a mechanical engineer and how he found his way into trading and techn