Simply Economics

Whether it's the Fed or the Swiss National Bank or the ECB, no action is the outlook as central bankers step back and wait for prior cuts to lift growth. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender also discuss German production and the question of industrial recession, and also Christine Lagarde's leadership and its implications for monetary policy and whether the ECB will be buying bio bonds.

Our panel updates the latest from the reserve banks of Australia and India as well as the Swiss National Bank and US Federal Reserve. Data effects of the Japanese tax hike and GM labor strike are also touched upon as are possible sterling ramifications from various outcomes of the UK election.

A lift underway for US housing could, for fourth-quarter GDP, cushion the risk of further erosion in US manufacturing. In Europe, Germany avoided recession in the third quarter, but just barely, while PMI flashes out on Friday will update progress, if any, Europe has made so far in the fourth quarter. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender also discuss the general outlook for inflation and the latest election developments in the UK and what they mean for Brexit.

Downside risk is the theme as Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender discuss upcoming industrial production reports from the US and China as well as already released reports from Europe. Pending GDP data of Germany are also in focus as is an unusual policy split at the Bank of England where, despite an official bias toward tightening, votes for rate cuts have suddenly emerged.

Whether the Bank of Japan or the Reserve Bank of Australia or the US Federal Reserve, central banks have been busy either cutting rates or talking about cutting rates. Our panel also discusses the latest economic developments out of Hong Kong as well as sagging indications on US consumer spending, and of course the latest twists on Brexit and the UK general election.

A heavy week of US data that include GDP and employment will likely turn instead on the uncertain outcome of Wednesday's policy meeting amid good reasons on both sides, whether to cut or not to cut rates. In Europe, initial October data have not been pointing to any economic lift with third-quarter GDP data expected to prove no better than flat.

For an indication on future business investment, the Federal Reserve, which meets next week, will be focused squarely on capital goods data in Thursday's durable goods report. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender then turn their attention to the economic, financial and also political ramifications of Brexit and Parliament's vote to accept in principle Boris Johnson's plan for Northern Ireland.

Up-and-down reports on progress in US-China trade talks and a burst of positive news on a Brexit deal raise questions over their economic and financial market implications. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender also discuss the latest data and what to expect for pending reports, including US retail sales and European GDP.

Rate cuts in reaction to stubbornly low inflation are the trends right now in Asia and also the US. Industrial slowing if not recession in Germany and the risk of spillover to the rest of Europe are questions for the European Central Bank. Along the way our panel discusses China's reaction to Hong Kong unrest, political polarization and related market effects in the US, and the latest details and outlook on Brexit.

Diffusion indexes, whether from the Institute For Supply Management or Markit Economics, take on special importance during times of possible economic shifts. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender discuss the history and methodology of these reports and consider what they may be saying about the future direction of definitive economic data.

Lack of cash in the banking system together with Federal Reserve policy dissension underscore the unfolding effects of accelerating fiscal debt. Also discussed are the latest updates on Brexit and their immediate and future implications for the pound.

How the Federal Reserve frames Wednesday's rate decision will be key to whether and by how much US rates can be expected to move lower in the months ahead. The outlook for the Swiss franc and the risk that it could move higher will be the chief concern for the Swiss National Bank and the outcome of their meeting on Thursday. Policy settings for the Bank of England and Bank of Japan as well as an assessment of last week's European Central Bank decision are also discussed.

Thursday's decision by the European Central Bank will precede a sweep of other central bank meetings including the Federal Reserve next week. Jeremy Hawkins breaks down the details of possible policy outcomes amid easing expectations for the extent of new ECB stimulus.

Asian central banks are either cutting rates or pointing that way, while in the US an unexpected drop in ISM manufacturing points squarely at a September 18 rate cut by the Federal Reserve. For Brexit, our panel host Jeremy Hawkins isolates the key issues and outlines the unfolding strategies.

From cross-border trade to Brexit, Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender assess the rising intensity of global risks and their unfolding impact on currencies especially the Swiss franc and the yen. Global central bank policies are discussed as are the latest economic data including US employment.

Coordinated rate cuts are falling in place with the Federal Reserve, despite strong consumer spending, expected to act this week followed by the European Central Bank in September. For the UK, rising chances for a hard Brexit are raising questions over the Bank of England's path while for Japan, maximum easing is promised.

Competitive rate cuts are one theme in this week's discussion which starts with the Bank of Japan and whether it needs to hold down the yen, then the European Central Bank and the nuts and bolts of how it will shape its coming announcement, and wind up with the Federal Reserve which, as it is about to prime the pump, is a facing wall of improving economic data.

The Federal Reserve has seemingly committed itself to a month-end rate cut at the same time, it turns out, that US economic data are pivoting higher. The European Central Bank may also be rushing down the rate-cut path while for the Bank of England neutral is the theme as a jump in wage pressures is offset by Brexit uncertainties.

Whether it's the Federal Reserve or the European Central Bank, monetary policy is tilted toward stimulus amid slowing in cross-border trade and lack of inflationary pressures. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender discuss the status of economic growth and what policy options central banks are likely to pursue.

Whether UK construction, German retail sales, or the ISM manufacturing report for the US, economic trends appear to be easing. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender also discuss the relationship between wages and labor market slack for central bank policy.