Sa For Fas

Bernie Sanders has introduced the BEZOS bill meant to stop “bad employers” like Amazon. Amazon has been accused of many things – but is it fair to call it a bad employer? It’s possible that Amazon is a better-than-average employer, despite problems in the broader economy which are beyond its ken to repair. Indeed, the burden of public policy falls more on Sanders and his colleagues.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It is not politics but economics that is pressuring emerging market currencies. The world’s bond vigilantes are concerned about EM dollar-denominated debt, which U.S. rate hikes have made more costly to service. Ten years ago this month, the smallest U.S. investment bank, Lehman Brothers, detonated a global financial crisis when it could not finance its debt. We make no specific predictions, but note that a similar dynamic could play out here: A vulnerable emerging market unable to finance its debt could Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Imagine Chicago going bankrupt. That frightful scenario seems all the more plausible now that the city is considering a harebrained scheme to deal with the city’s pension crisis by borrowing $10 billion on the bond market. That would roughly be akin to your owing $10,000 to somebody, whom you don’t want to pay with funds in your investment account, so you instead borrow on your credit card. The risk that you end up in even worse shape than where you started is not low.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

If Rip Van Winkle fell asleep in 1900 and awoke in the year 2000, he’d probably see disappointing portfolio results. Even a simple (and correct) decision to put his money on the world’s superpower would lead to underperformance. So much of investing is out of our control. What we can control is how much we save and how widely we diversify.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The crypto market has fallen $600 billion so far this year, with the market now worth about $200 billion. That sets up the usual investor debate as to whether to board the crypto train to the promised brave new world or to steer clear of the wild ride. Cryptos’ promoters promise the moon and the stars, but bitcoin and its crypto cousins reside on planet earth and will only make it to the top through the same hard slog that the business world has always required.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Iranian naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz are signaling Tehran’s threat of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-third of the world’s oil passes. Iran has made this threat before, and has not carried it out, but today Tehran's back may be against the wall because its citizens have lost their fear of their rulers and the U.S. is prosecuting an economic war against the regime. Though a prolonged closure could deal a harsh and enduring setback to the global economy, the Iranians have Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The SEC is now investigating the veracity of Elon Musk’s claim to have secured funding to take Tesla private. I’m skeptical of Musk’s tweet because the company has not produced any proof of funding over the past 48 hours and because Tesla’s board has given the impression that the idea is far from fully developed. But the fundamental reasons for my skepticism is that Musk has abused Twitter before.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A Wall Street Journal headline warns that a movement is afoot among Canadians to boycott U.S. products. On the basis of news media commentary about the trade wars, you might assume that commercial links between the U.S. and Canada are on track to shrink. To the contrary, I believe that the data one quarter and one year from now will show an expansion of trade.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Russians have taken to the streets this week shouting slogans such as “Putin is a thief,” “away with the tsar,” and “stop stealing our future.” Protesters are reacting to a bill in Russia’s legislature that would raise the retirement age to 65 for men and 63 for women. Given that citizens of democracies do not fear their governments – rather it is Western leaders who fear their publics – it is easier to grasp that if Putin can’t get retirement reform done, neither can Western governmentsLearn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The latest weekly blogpost from mutual fund manager John Hussman warns of the quote ‘brutal consequences’ of staying invested in equities. There is a compelling quality to his analyses – a sort of as-day-follows-night kind of logic to them. But the former professor professes too much, and investors must firmly understand that his data do not allow us to deduce the timing of market crashes and recessions.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The hundreds of billions of dollars that Facebook lost overnight will probably be bid back up, as investors come to terms with the reality that the social media giant’s business model remains intact. The matter is not unlike tobacco companies able to increase cigarette usage per customer before the damage cigarettes could cause became widely understood.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A market read of the Helsinki summit suggests that the U.S. was looking to achieve numerous objectives vis-à-vis oil markets, Iran, China and North Korea. For example, it is interesting to see that North Korea has gotten more cooperative since that summit, now dismantling its rocket launch site. It is similarly noteworthy that Russia is now reining in Iran, and has pledged cooperation with the U.S. in oil and gas markets.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The U.S. budget deficit is now set to exceed $1 trillion starting next year. Amazon is now leading the pack of companies closing in on a $1 trillion market-cap. We should all be grateful for the 4th Amendment, and yet remain concerned about the temptations of revenue officers to find deep pockets to pick.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Despite all the media attention, there is little of consequence for markets in the Trump-Putin meeting. That is a function of Russia’s current, protracted economic weakness. Ironically, the biggest long-term economic threat to Russia right now may be the U.S.-China trade war. A falling yuan can take the Russian economy down with it.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A glance at today’s news feed provides fresh reminders of the potency of self-interest. NATO is increasing expenditures, the Saudis are increasing oil production, the Chinese are softening their posture on trade issues – all in deference to a self-assertive U.S. Agree or disagree with the current administration, an understanding of this operating force in national decision-making will aid your knowledge of markets.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The current maneuvering over Brexit is looking a lot like the classic treachery of long knives that periodically disturbs the political peace of the British Isles. Hung parliaments don’t last very long before such treachery leads to new elections. Current polling suggests a general election could lead to a Labour Party victory that would bring about an unprecedented intrusiveness in the economy from which investors will likely flee.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Economic growth derives from the input of labor and productivity. Productivity gains have slowed in the U.S. over the past decade, making a growing labor force critical. Eventually, the impact of the U.S. tax cuts will cease to be felt, as will other temporary economic stimulants, and the U.S. will return to a path of low growth. More workers, on the other hand, might add to the Labor Day cheer by restoring workers’ prestige within the economy.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The landslide election of a leftist critic of NAFTA won’t be the cause of NAFTA’s demise; the trade framework appeared fatally wounded beforehand. The Trump Administration was committed to revising the agreement in what it perceived as America’s favor, while pro-NAFTA Canada and Mexico seemed unable to come to terms with the reality that their choice was going to be a less good deal or no deal.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

People in their 30s and 40s are just not engaged in the issue of retirement despite all signs pointing to a looming retirement crisis, an astonishing reality given the low level of private savings and public funding for retirement. Even if younger people are prepared to work into their later years, do they not know that sometimes their careers are prematurely ended?Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Two years on it seems like Britain has failed to gain the benefits of Brexit. Britain is muddling along, though Brexit has taken a toll, particularly on the pound. Meanwhile, the Remain side is kidding itself if it thinks the status quo ante can be restored. What’s more, the spirit of Brexit has surely emboldened Scottish separatists and increased support for Irish unification, spelling further decline for the UK.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices