National Committee On United States-china Relations

The National Committee held a virtual program on February 10, 2021 with Dr. Graham Allison, Dr. Thomas Gold, Ms. Melinda Liu, and Dr. Michael Szonyi to celebrate and remember teacher/mentor/public servant/friend Professor Ezra Vogel.

The National Committee, in partnership with Peking University’s National School of Development (NSD), held a virtual program on February 2, 2021 with Dr. Hu Yifan, Dr. Huang Yiping, and Dr. Yao Yang to forecast China’s economy in the coming year. The panel was moderated by NCUSCR President Stephen Orlins. Topics included: China’s growth trajectory in 2021 and beyond, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Chinese and global markets, progress and challenges in structural reform, expected reforms in China in 2021, developments and challenges in the private sector, cross-border capital flows, and U.S.-China trade frictions.

The National Committee held a virtual event on January 26, 2021 where Rhodium Group’s Daniel Rosen and Adam Lysenko rolled out the latest addition to the Two-Way Street report series to increase the transparency of this portfolio investment discussion. In a conversation moderated by National Committee President Stephen Orlins, Rosen and Lysenko were joined by KPMG Chief Economist Constance Hunter and BlackRock Senior Managing Director Mark Wiedman to discuss the report's implications.

Environmental degradation in China has not only brought about a wider range of diseases and other health consequences than previously understood, but has also taken a heavy toll on China’s society, economy, and the legitimacy of the party-state. In Toxic Politics: China’s Environmental Health Crisis and Its Challenge to the Chinese State, Yanzhong Huang presents evidence of China's deepening health crisis and challenges the widespread view that China is winning its war on pollution. Although there has been some progress, policy enforcement measures have not substantially reduced pollution or improved public health. Dr. Huang argues that the failures lie in the institutional structure of the Chinese party-state, with conflicting incentives for officials and limited capacity of the state to deliver public goods. Toxic Politics describes a political system that is remarkably resilient but fundamentally flawed, and the implications for China's future, domestically and internationally.     On January 11, 2021, the

China’s President Xi Jinping is committed to two primary military ambitions: he wants China to become a great maritime power by 2035 and a world-class armed force by 2050. In China as a Twenty First Century Naval Power, retired U.S. Navy Rear Admiral Michael McDevitt focuses on China's navy and its recent and continuing transformation into a formidable force. Mr. McDevitt begins the book by exploring the strategic rationale behind President Xi's objectives. He then examines the PLA Navy's role in the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean, and concludes with a forecast of what President Xi's vision of a "world-class navy" might look like in the next fifteen years as the 2035 deadline approaches. On December 22, 2020, the National Committee held a virtual program with Rear Admiral Michael McDevitt, USN (retired), where he described the development of China’s navy, implications for the U.S. military and policy-makers more broadly.

In mid-November 2020, China’s National People’s Congress passed a resolution allowing Hong Kong authorities to expel legislators deemed a threat to national security or failing to pledge allegiance to Hong Kong without having to go through the judicial system. Shortly thereafter, the Hong Kong government disqualified four pro-democracy legislators. Reaction within and outside of Hong Kong was swift: fellow pan-democrat Legislative Council (LegCo) members resigned in protest; the U.S. national security advisor said that the Chinese Communist Party had “flagrantly violated its international commitments” while the British foreign minister saw the expulsions as an assault on Hong Kong’s freedoms. By contrast, Chief Executive Carrie Lam proclaimed the dismissals both necessary and legal. In early December, protesters were sentenced to prison for activities during the 2019 demonstrations.  What do the most recent developments tell us about “One Country, Two Systems”? About the strength of Hong Kong’s judiciary? Wha

In China’s Fintech Explosion, Sara Hsu and Jianjun Li explore the transformative potential of China’s fintech industry, describing the risks and rewards for participants as well as the impact on consumers. They cover many subsectors of the industry: digital payment systems, peer-to-peer lending and crowdfunding, credit card issuance, internet banks, blockchain finance and virtual currencies, and online insurance. Offering analysis of market potential, risks, and competition, the authors describe major companies including Alipay and Tencent, and other leading fintech firms.

National politics have grabbed the headlines over the last few months; less publicized are the challenges taking place at the local levels. Nine former Governors gathered this fall to discuss the toll a deteriorating U.S.-China relationship has had on their states.    On December 7, 2020, the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations and the U.S. Heartland China Association (USHCA) invited former governor and current chairman and CEO of USHCA Bob Holden (Missouri, D, 2001-2005), along with former governors Jon Huntsman, Jr. (Utah, R, 2005-2011), Gary Locke (Washington, D, 1997-2005), and Rick Snyder (Michigan, R, 2011-2019) to discuss the consequences of bilateral tensions in each of their respective states and how revitalizing subnational relationships and cooperation can help pave a path forward.

Renowned China scholar David Shambaugh describes the broad-gauged and global competition for power, especially in Asia, underway between the United States and China in his new book, Where Great Powers Meet. Concentrating on Southeast Asia, Professor Shambaugh notes that the two countries constantly vie for position and influence across this highly significant area; the outcome of the contest may determine whether Asia leaves the American orbit after seventy years and falls into a Chinese sphere of influence.  On December 1, 2020, the National Committee held a virtual program with Professor David Shambaugh as he looks at the geopolitical future of Southeast Asia amidst the possibility of renewed great power competition in the region.

About CHINA Town Hall: ncuscr.org/CTH.   Confronting the global challenges of climate change and communicable disease cannot be achieved by any single country, but must be met by constructive cooperation among nations. Although the United States and China will compete in many areas, it is imperative they join forces to face these universal problems that affect global stability and endanger the world's most vulnerable people.   On November 18, 2020, the National Committee held a discussion with Margaret Hamburg (National Academy of Medicine), Ryan Hass (Brookings Institution), and Angel Hsu (Yale-NUS) to consider the roles of the United States and China in addressing these two major transnational issues. The conversation was moderated by Merit Janow (Columbia School of International and Public Affairs).

About CHINA Town Hall: www.ncuscr.org/CTH.   Robust bilateral economic and trade ties have been the greatest source of strength and foundation for engagement in the U.S.-China relationship for decades. Yet in recent years those ties have been frayed by an ongoing trade war, the threat of decoupling, and a global economic and public health crisis brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic.   The National Committee held a conversation on November 17, 2020 with Amy Celico (Albright Stonebridge Group), Huang Yiping (Peking University), and Andy Rothman (Matthews Asia), moderated by NCUSCR President Stephen Orlins, to discuss the current trade tensions, prospects for economic growth during and after COVID-19, and the future of U.S.-China economic ties.

  Learn more at ncuscr.org/CTH.   Starting with ping-pong diplomacy in 1971, cultural diplomacy has played a pivotal role in facilitating mutual understanding between the peoples of the United States and China. This event will gather leading cultural figures to discuss how, despite sometimes turbulent political and economic relations, food and film continue to reveal our shared humanity and connect us through culture.   On November 12, 2020, the National Committee held a discussion with Raymond Chang (Major League Baseball China), Lucas Sin (Junzi Kitchen), and Janet Yang (Janet Yang Productions) on the importance, challenges, and future of cross-cultural learning between the United States and China. NCUSCR Public Intellectuals Program fellow Alison Friedman (Performing Arts of West Kowloon Cultural District Authority) moderated the event.

Sign up for more CHINA Town Hall 2020 events: http://www.ncuscr.org/CTH   Renowned investor, philanthropist, and best-selling author Ray Dalio discusses today's most important issues, and the critical roles the United States and China play in an era of rapid global change, at the 14th annual CHINA Town Hall Keynote on Tuesday, November 10, 2020. Ray Dalio and his family have been deeply involved in business and philanthropic efforts in China for 35 years. He is the author of the best-selling "Principles: Life and Work" and "The Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail," which will be released this winter.

As its glittering urban skylines attest, China has apparently quickly transformed itself from a place of stark poverty into a modern, urban, technologically savvy economic powerhouse. Scott Rozelle and Natalie Hell show in Invisible China, however, that the truth is much more complicated and perhaps deeply concerning. China’s growth has relied heavily on unskilled labor. Most of the workers who have fueled the country’s rise come from rural villages and have never attended high school. The unskilled wage rate has been rising for more than a decade, inducing companies inside China to automate at an unprecedented rate and triggering an exodus of those seeking cheaper labor elsewhere. Drawing on extensive surveys on the ground in China, Dr. Rozelle and Ms. Hell demonstrate that its labor force has one of the lowest levels of education of any country with a similarly large economy. The limited education of so many workers may leave them unable to find work in the formal workplace as China’s economy changes and ma

In August 2020, U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Secretary Alex M. Azar II visited Taiwan, the highest level American cabinet officer to do so since the establishment of diplomatic relations with the PRC. A month later Under Secretary of State Keith Krach followed, representing the U.S. government at former President Lee Teng-hui’s funeral. What do these high-level visits suggest about the Trump administration’s policies toward Taiwan and the PRC, and about cross-strait relations? The National Committee held a virtual program with Professors Margaret K. Lewis and Shelley Rigger on October 27.

How does the rise of China alter the context in which U.S. policy should be assessed? In China from a U.S. Policy Perspective, Professor Eric Heikkila divides policy into three broad areas: economics, sustainability, and geopolitics. In each one, he analyzes key policy issues, demonstrating how a growing China exerts pressure on American policy, not explicitly through lobbying or negotiation, but implicitly through the reality it creates. Dr. Heikkila argues that at a time of increasing bilateral tensions, it is critical for American policymakers to focus on the many policy questions affected by China’s rise. The National Committee held a virtual program on October 26, 2020 with Professor Eric Heikkila.

At a meeting of the ASEAN Regional Forum in 2010, the Chinese foreign minister, angered by a question about the South China Sea dispute, declared: “China is a big country and other countries are small countries, and that is just a fact.” The authors whose essays are collected in The Deer and the Dragon examine the nature, dynamics, and implications of that fact – and the inequality that has resulted between China and the countries of Southeast Asia.   What does the history of Sino-Southeast Asian relations tell us about future possibilities? Do economic relations already suggest dependence? How do the countries of Southeast Asia view China and its intentions, and how does China see the region? What is the role of ASEAN?  How does U.S. policy affect the relative influence of China and the United States in Southeast Asia?    The National Committee held a virtual program with Dr. Donald Emmerson featuring commentary from Dr. Ann Marie Murphy on October 22, 2020. Stanford University’s Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Res

Tensions between the United States and China regarding the South China Sea are rising along with the recent broader breakdown of bilateral relations. The legitimacy of historical rights claims, entitlements and rights of other claimant states such as the Philippines and Vietnam, and the boundaries of freedom of navigation operations are among the central issues. Despite their differences, both the United States and China wish to avoid conflict and uphold professionalism at sea. Is there any significant space for cooperation in South China Sea interactions beyond military engagement, including biodiversity protection and Coast Guard activities? What role do maritime and international law play in the rapidly evolving bilateral relationship? How is China likely to respond to the upcoming U.S. election in its maneuvers in the South China Sea? On October 20, 2020, the National Committee hosted a virtual program featuring Peter Dutton, M. Taylor Fravel, Tabitha Mallory, Wu Shicun, and Zhu Feng. The five experts dis

In 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced the One Belt One Road policy, later known as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a global development strategy involving infrastructure projects and associated financing around the world. While the Chinese government frames the plan as one promoting transnational connectivity, critics see it as part of a strategy to achieve global dominance.  Rivers of Iron examines one aspect of the BRI: China’s effort to create an inter-country railway system connecting China and its seven Southeast Asian neighbors (Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam). The book explores the political strengths and weaknesses of the plan, as well as the capacity of the countries involved to resist, shape, and perhaps take advantage of China’s actions. The authors seek to explain how domestic politics in the eight Asian nations shape their varying responses and behaviors. How does China wield power using infrastructure? Do smaller states have agency? How should

Recent border disputes between China and India began in April, escalating to a deadly clash on June 15. Indian authorities reported that 20 troops died in the hand-to-hand combat using clubs and rocks; the Chinese side has not released casualty information. In August, India accused China of provoking military tensions; China claimed that the stand-off was entirely India’s fault. The following month, China accused India of firing shots at its troops; India in turn accused China of firing shots in the air. If the allegations are true, it would be the first time that shots had been fired in 45 years.   There have been 17 rounds of talks since June, including a meeting of the two countries’ defense and foreign ministers on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Moscow in September. What is behind the tensions along the 2,100-mile border some 21,000 feet above sea level in the rugged Himalayas? How likely is a resolution before the harsh winter arrives in a few weeks? What are the implica