Politics With Michelle Grattan

The Voice to Parliament reached another milestone this week, with the official essays for the Yes and No cases published online by the Australian Electoral Commission. These will be sent to all Australian electors in the lead up to the vote, which will be in the last quarter of the year In recent weeks, polls have suggested the “yes” vote is on the slide, and has an uphill battle if it is to be successful. In this podcast, we talk with two Indigenous senators, The Greens’ Dorinda Cox, and Liberal Kerrynne Liddle. Cox is campaigning for the Voice, while Liddle does not believe a Voice will achieve the practical outcomes those in favour are championing.

As well as her interviews with politicians and experts, Politics with Michelle Grattan includes “Word from The Hill”, where she discusses the news with members of The Conversation’s politics team. In this podcast Michelle and politics + society editor Amanda Dunn discuss Premier Dan Andrews’ surprise decision to pull Victoria out of hosting the 2026 Commonwealth Games. They also canvass the official yes and no cases issued this week for the Voice referendum, and Labor frontbencher Andrew Leigh’s strong speech warning of the excessive level of factional control within the Labor Party.

For months, speculation has swirled about the appointment of a new governor of the Reserve Bank, a key position in the management of the Australian economy. The present governor, Philip Lowe, has faced sharp criticism, especially over his prediction interest rates would be held steady until 2024, which proved wrong. It always seemed unlikely he would get another term. Now the government has named his successor – the present deputy governor Michele Bullock. She will be the first woman to hold the position. From the government’s point of view, it is a cautious appointment, signalling both continuity and change. Bullock is of the bank, but she will oversee the reforms that have come out of the review of its operations.

The Robodebt royal commission’s report has excoriated a raft of former ministers, especially Scott Morrison, who was a main instigator of the program, as well as public servants who were involved. What we don’t know is who has been referred for prosecution or other action, because the names are in a sealed section of the report. When in opposition, Bill Shorten pursued the scandal, mobilising a class action. Now Shorten is Minister for Government Services, overseeing a department that in an earlier iteration was at the centre of Robodebt. He’s also Minister for the National Disability Insurance Scheme. In this podcast, Shorten joins The Conversation to discuss the aftermath of the royal commission report, and progress in reforming the NDIS.

Next year’s American presidential election is shaping up to be extraordinary. Donald Trump is favoured to be the Republican candidate, despite facing multiple charges over removing classified documents. President Joe Biden has indicated he intends to run again, despite the fact he’ll be 82 at the time of the poll and 86 if he completed another four-year term. In this podcast, author Bruce Wolpe - a senior fellow at the United States Centre at the University of Sydney, who previously worked with the Democratic Party in Congress, discusses his new book “Trump’s Australia”. Wolpe argues a second Trump term would have shocking consequences for Australia.

The next federal election could be conducted under dramatically reformed electoral laws, with caps on spending and donations, and a much lower disclosure threshold for the disclosure of donations. The changes, being worked up by Special Minister Don Farrell, would also trim the wings of third parties, such as Simon Holmes à Court’s Climate 200. Farrell tells The Conversation’s Politics Podcast he is not waiting for the final report of the parliamentary Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters, which in its interim report has recommended a set of reforms broadly in line with Labor policy. The report was tabled on Monday. Farrell says waiting until the final report comes at the end of the year would make it harder to get legislation in place for the next election, due by May 2025. He will have negotiations over the coming months and wants as much bipartisanship as possible, despite the Coalition opposing key recommendations of the majority report.  

For most voters, the cost of living is their major current concern. Rising interest rates and high prices for power, groceries and other necessities are hurting in particular lower and middle income people. Nowhere is this more the case than in Sydney’s western suburbs. Independent Dai Le, who holds the seat of Fowler in Sydney’s west, managed to pull off the unthinkable at last year’s federal election. Le, who financed her campaign with a very modest budget, defeated Labor’s Kristina Keneally, who was attempting to move from the Senate to the lower house. Fowler has traditionally been Labor heartland. Le is the first non-Labor MP to represent the area, one of Australia’s most multicultural electorates.  

Artificial intelligence is a challenging policy area that’s moving towards the centre stage of public and government attention. Some experts emphasise the immense potential of AI, while others are deeply troubled about the ramifications the technology may have on humans. AI has the potential to open up employment opportunities, but also to replace many jobs. The Albanese government has recently begun consultations as it formulates a policy for seeking to ensure AI technology is both safe and responsible. In this podcast, Ed Husic, the minister for industry and science, who is overseeing the AI policy development process, joins us to talk about this new frontier.

The Coalition’s decision to oppose the Voice to Parliament has put its moderate members in a jam. Some moderates are active yes advocates, while others are trying to keep low profiles. Bridget Archer, the outspoken Liberal MP for Bass, is a vocal yes campaigner. More generally, she is also taking a lead in urging the Liberal party to undertake root-and-branch reform. Archer is pushing for extensive change in a party that is electorally on the ropes, out of office everywhere except her home state of Tasmania. Since entering parliament in 2019, Archer has crossed the floor on 27 occasion to vote against her party. She admits there are those colleagues who avoid her, but says her decisions are always based on what is in the best interest of her community, and argues the strength of the Liberal Party historically has been for members to be able to sometimes disagree and to do so respectfully.  

The federal budget gave a much-needed, but very modest, increase to those on JobSeeker and associated payments. However, it didn’t address that other important issue of the unemployed: how to help as many JobSeekers as possible to get into work, whether full- or part-time. This will be canvassed in the government’s coming white paper on employment. It’s already, however, before a parliamentary inquiry into employment services. In this podcast, Julian Hill, the Labor member for Bruce, who chairs that inquiry, joins us to discuss the job market and getting people into work. Hill has also been actively working for Julian Assange’s release from London’s maximum-security Belmarsh Prison. And he boasts a huge following on TikTok, the Chinese-owned social media platform, which is banned on official government devices.  

The government’s planned Housing Australia Future Fund has hit a roadblock. Legislation for the $10 billion fund – the returns on which would be used to build social and affordable housing – is being blocked by an unusual alliance of the Coalition and the Greens. Max Chandler-Mather, who won the seat of Griffith in Brisbane from Labor’s Terri Butler, has been under personal attack by the government. Labor leader in the Senate Penny Wong accused him of ego-stroking, and the prime minister suggested he was hypocritical for wanting more social housing while opposing a developments in his electorate. Why is a party that has championed more social and affordable housing opposing an initiative to get more housing into the market? In this podcast, Chandler-Mather says: “Our criticisms are twofold"

Will the budget make inflation worse? Are its boosts to welfare payments just the first step for the Labor government? Could the projected one-off surplus be followed by another one or more? What (if any) of the budget measures will the Coalition oppose? There’s quite a bit about this budget that, as the saying goes, “only time will tell”. In this podcast, Treasurer Jim Chalmers defends his budget from those economists who claim it will be inflationary, and strongly rejects suggestions it doesn’t have much for middle income Australians struggling with rising mortgage payments. Chalmers also promises that, given the current tight labour market, a priority in coming months will be finding ways to help more of the long-term unemployed into jobs. Shadow treasurer Angus Taylor lists some of the measures the opposition supports but will not commit on the changes to the Petroleum Resource Rent Tax, despite the sector’s benign attitude to the cautious revamp.

The federal government is trying to contain the exploding cost of the landmark National Disability Insurance Scheme – especially difficult given the fears of vulnerable people who rely on it. National cabinet’s decision last week to aim to reduce the cost increase from the current 14% annually down to 8% by 2026 received a sharp reaction from disability advocates. This financial year the NDIS will cost more than $35 billion, two thirds paid by the federal government. The government has flagged areas for change and there is also a review being done. In this podcast, former Paralympian Kurt Fearnley, chair of the National Disability Insurance Authority, which implements the scheme, discusses its issues and the road ahead.  

With the Liberal Party formally opposing the Voice, Peter Dutton last week kicked off his “no” campaign in Alice Springs. His claim that child sexual abuse is rife was quickly under attack from the government and others who accused him of politicking, using the issue as a political football. Marion Scrymgour, a former deputy chief minister in the Northern Territory, is the federal Labor member for the seat of Lingiari, an electorate covering almost all the NT outside Darwin. Scrymgour says Dutton is taking up the same theme as was heard in the Northern Territory intervention. “The same campaign that was done to justify the intervention is the same campaign that’s been happening with the Leader of the Opposition.

Professor Marcia Langton holds the Foundation Chair of Australian Indigenous Studies at the University of Melbourne, and was co-author (with Professor Tom Calma) of the Indigenous Voice Co-design Process report to the Morrison government. She has been a fighter for rights and progress for Indigenous Australians for decades, and she’s one of those at the centre of the yes campaign for the Voice. Her own voice is always forthright and formidable. Langton admits she isn’t “entirely confident” where the referendum stands at the moment but is more positive as the debate continues. “I’ve been gauging the response of the general public by reading a lot and having a look at the social media, and I think most people can see that this is a very simple and modest proposition and that it will make a difference. And what I’m seeing more and more is most people realising, yes, well, why don’t Indigenous people have a say about policies and the laws that affect them? "They realise when they think about it that this has gone

The Liberals have formally decided to oppose the Voice. Peter Dutton has declared he will campaign against it, a high risk strategy when polls are showing a majority of Australians currently support a “yes” vote. Noel Pearson was scathing of the Liberal Party, calling the decision not to support the Voice “a Judas betrayal of our country”. Moderate Liberal MP Bridget Archer will campaign for the “yes” case. In this podcast, Michelle Grattan and Senator Simon Birmingham, leader of the opposition in the senate, and one of the few remaining moderates in the party, discuss the Voice, the Aston byelection defeat and “where to now?” for the Liberal Party.

Senator Lidia Thorpe’s defection from the Greens changed the power dynamic in the Senate. Now the government needs two crossbenchers (and the Greens) to pass legislation opposed by the Coalition. Tasmanian Senator Jacqui Lambie and her colleague Tammy Tyrrell can provide those two votes, which puts them in a potentially strong bargaining position. Lambie has never been afraid to call things how she see’s them. She recently visited Alice Springs and urged the situation needed some “tough love”. In this podcast Lambie urges a return to the old Community Development Employment Projects program for Indigenous communities. Under the CDEP people exchanged unemployment benefits for work and training managed by a local Indigenous community organisations. “I don’t know how many of these places I’ve visited in the Indigenous communities over the last nine years where they just so much praise that old jobs program.”

The Productivity Commission’s nine-volume report has a tough central message. It says productivity policy has to focus on the areas that have proven the hardest in the past, rather than those where previously progress has been most readily achieved. One key take from the report is that Australia is performing poorly in growing its productivity. The commission makes recommendations across the policy spectrum, from education and health through workplace relations and migration to data and technology. It points to the difficulty of improving productivity in the public sector, and more generally to the complexities, now that we have become predominantly a services economy.   In this podcast, Michelle Grattan discusses the blueprint for reform with commission chair, Michael Brennan.

Voters in New South Wales are heading to the polling booths on March 25. For both Premier Dominic Perrottet and Labor leader Chris Minns, it is their first election as leader. The Coalition government has held power since 2011. Labor needs to gain a net nine seats to form majority government. If Labor wins, the party will be in power in every state and territory except Tasmania. There are 10 seats in this election that are on a margin of less than 6%, including Minns’ seat of Kogarah on 0.1%. In several contests the fate of “teal’ candidates will be watched. Spending and donation caps, and optional preferential voting make the teals’ path to victory more difficult than in the federal election. In this podcast, Michelle Grattan speaks with Antony Green, the ABC’s election analyst, Professor Andy Marks, from the University of Western Sydney, and Ashleigh Raper, the ABC’s NSW state political reporter.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers sparked a political row when he announced a tax hike on superannuation concessions for accounts with balances over $3 million, from 15% to 30%, to begin in 2025. Polling indicates the move has broad support from the public, although any change to super is always controversial. Opposition leader Peter Dutton has promised the change would be reversed by a Coalition government. Mike Callaghan, a former treasury official, chaired the Retirement Income Review that was handed to the Morrison government in 2020. Callaghan sees the Chalmers’ change to super as “an important step”.