Brussels Sprouts

What are the most important takeaways from this week’s NATO summit in Madrid? Ivo Daalder and Doug Lute join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to discuss how the alliance is adapting to meet the challenges of a new era Ivo Daalder is president of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. He served as the U.S. ambassador to NATO from 2009 to 2013. Doug Lute served as the United States Ambassador to NATO from 2013 to 2017. A career Army officer, he retired from active duty in 2010 as a lieutenant general after 35 years of service.

During the CNAS 2022 National Security Conference, Julianne Smith, U.S. Ambassador to NATO, joined Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend in conversation about Finland and Sweden’s accession to NATO following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Then Andrea and Jim were joined by Steven Erlanger and David Sanger of The New York Times to continue the conversation.

As the war between Russia and Ukraine drags on with little progress toward a resolution, fractures are beginning to appear in the European response. While the European Union successfully came together to take swift and decisive action during the early stages of the conflict, unity has been harder to come by in recent weeks, with differing perceptions and attitudes leading to more frequent disagreements among member states. There has been particularly harsh criticism directed against Germany and France, which some have accused of taking an overly conciliatory approach toward Russia, pointing to evidence such as German hesitation to deliver weapons to Ukraine and French statements calling for the West not to “humiliate” Russia. As Berlin and Paris receive increasing pushback from other member states who advocate for a bolder policy of unreserved support for Ukraine, the prospects for continued unity appear much less certain going forward. Pierre Morcos and Jeremy Shapiro join Jim Townsend and Nick Lokker to mak

On May 15 and 16, the United States and European Union hosted the second Trade and Technology Council Meeting in Paris-Saclay, France. Since the inaugural TTC meeting, the TTC has emerged as an important venue for transatlantic coordination on export controls directed against Russia, providing a window for further transatlantic cooperation on technology policy. Capitalizing on this momentum, the joint statement from this meeting highlights shared initiatives the working groups have been advancing in the past months and plan to work on moving forward. Tyson Barker and Fran Burwell join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Carisa Nietsche to discuss takeaways from the TTC meeting as well as opportunities for transatlantic cooperation in technology policy. Tyson Barker is the head of the Technology and Global Affairs at the German Council on Foreign Relations, or DGAP. He previously worked at Aspen Germany where, as deputy executive director and fellow, he was responsible for the institute’s digital and transatlantic prog

More than two months after Russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine, the war has now entered a second phase, with the two sides facing off in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region. Looking forward, it remains unclear how the conflict will evolve as well as how it could eventually come to an end, given the numerous difficulties that stand in the way of achieving any sort of negotiated settlement. Mike Kofman and Jeff Edmonds join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend discuss where the war now stands and what the future may hold for Ukraine, Russia, and the broader international community. Mike Kofman is the Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at CNA as well as an Adjunct Senior Fellow at CNAS. His research focuses on Russia and the former Soviet Union, specializing in Russian armed forces, military thought, capabilities, and strategy. Jeff Edmonds is a Research Scientist with CNA’s Russia Studies Program and an Adjunct Senior Fellow at CNAS. His research focuses on the Russian military, foreign p

What can we expect from the final round of the French presidential election? The possibility of a Le Pen presidency poses major concerns for the future of the European Union and the transatlantic alliance, given her expressed desire to take actions such as leaving NATO’s integrated military command, seeking rapprochement with Russia, and enshrining the supremacy of French legislation over EU law. Another term for Macron, by contrast, would likely see a continuation of his strong pro-European and internationalist vision for France. Célia Belin and Ben Haddad join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to discuss this high-stakes political event, as well as what might unfold and what that might mean for France and the international community. Célia Belin is a visiting fellow in the Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution. Her areas of expertise include transatlantic relations, U.S. foreign policy toward Europe, and French politics and foreign policy. Benjamin Haddad is the senior

Will Finland and Sweden join NATO? Since Russia launched its unprovoked war of aggression against Ukraine in late February, European political and security dynamics have changed in profound ways. For Finland and Sweden, the invasion has ignited a new round of debate around the question of NATO membership, causing both countries to reexamine their longstanding policy of remaining outside the transatlantic military alliance. Despite this movement, no political decision has yet been made in either country, and obstacles may remain in the way of membership. Nevertheless, it appears that a seismic shift in foreign and security policy could be on the horizon for both countries. Anna Wieslander and Mika Aaltola join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to discuss what we might expect to see going forward. Anna Wieslander serves as director for Northern Europe at the Atlantic Council. In addition to her role at the Atlantic Council, she chairs the Institute for Security and Development Policy in Stockholm and ser

What does Viktor Orbán’s win in Hungary mean for the future of Europe? On April 3rd, voters in Hungary went to the polls for national parliamentary elections. Despite efforts by the opposition to unite around a single candidate, Viktor Orbán easily managed to win a fourth consecutive term as Prime Minister, as his right-wing Fidesz party retained the two-thirds super majority that has allowed it to drastically reshape Hungarian politics and society over the past twelve years. The European Union and the transatlantic alliance are certain to face major challenges from Orbán’s continued leadership of Hungary, including his consistent pro-Putin stance amidst the war in Ukraine, his ongoing efforts to undermine the rule of law, and his hardline stance on critical issues such as migration. Dan Kelemen joins Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to discuss this and more. Dan Kelemen is Professor of Political Science and Law and Jean Monnet Chair in European Union Politics at Rutgers University. He is the author o

What role will China choose to play within the Russia-Ukrainian war? Beijing has notably refused to condemn Moscow for its military aggression, instead putting the blame on the West for sparking the crisis. Moreover, there are concerns that China may come to Russia’s aid by providing military assistance or helping it to evade sanctions, though it remains unclear whether China will ultimately act so blatantly in Russia’s favor. In any case, it is certain that the evolving relationship between Russia and China will be a key factor in both the current crisis and the emerging new world order more broadly. Jude Blanchette and Dave Shullman join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on the latest episode of Brussels Sprouts to discuss all of this and more. Jude Blanchette holds the Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Previously, he was engagement director at The Conference Board’s China Center for Economics and Business in Beijing, where he researched China’s pol

With the war in Ukraine now entering its second month, we are seeing few day-to-day changes on the battlefield. Russia’s focus appears to be primarily on the south and the east of the country, as it looks less and less likely that it will be able to muster sufficient forces to take Kyiv. Meanwhile, there has been limited progress in negotiations—while President Zelenskyy has said he is amenable to neutrality for Ukraine, there nonetheless remains a deep political divide when it comes to territorial integrity. Taken together, it seems that we are likely to see a long, drawn-out conflict with no real end in sight. Carl Bildt joins Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on the latest episode of Brussels Sprouts to discuss all of this and more. Carl Bildt is the co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations. He previously served as both Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Sweden. Under his leadership, the government initiated major liberal economic reforms and negotiated Sweden’s accession to the EU.

As the war in Ukraine continues into its fourth week, the picture on the ground has largely remained the same in recent days, with the Russian military making only minimal progress toward its objectives. Meanwhile, negotiations are continuing but look highly unlikely to produce tangible results in the next couple of weeks—Putin knows that the conflict will eventually be settled at the negotiating table, and Russia is therefore likely to increase the brutality of its tactics in the short-term with the aim of compelling Zelensky into concessions. Finally, the risk of an expanded conflict remains, demonstrated by Moscow’s recent attack on a training facility near the Polish border as well as its warnings that Western arms convoys could be considered “legitimate targets” for attack. Mike Kofman and Jeff Edmonds join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to examine the continuing war and potential trajectories. Mike Kofman is the Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at CNA as well as an Adjunc

One week after Russia launched its invasion into Ukraine—an invasion that President Biden condemned as "premeditated and unprovoked" in his State of the Union address—Europe has become engulfed in its biggest war in decades. While Russia has expanded its assault on several key Ukrainian cities, a firm resistance from Ukrainian forces and civilians continues and the list of countries vowing immediate military aid to Ukraine continues to grow. On March 4, the Center for a New American Security hosted a panel featuring Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Richard Fontaine, Jeffrey Edmonds, and Michael Kofman to examine the unfolding crisis. Jeffrey Edmonds is an expert on U.S. national security, especially as it relates to Russia. He works full time for CNA’s Russia Studies Program. Most recently, Jeff served as the Director for Russia on the National Security Council and acting Senior Director for Russia during the 2017 presidential transition. Prior to the NSC, Jeff served as a senior military analyst with the Central Inte

The United States and its allies have released an unprecedented and sweeping set of sanctions and export controls in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This includes blocking sanctions on most major Russian banks, asset freezes on Russian elites, and a broad set of restrictions on exports of technology to Russia. Over the weekend, we saw the announcement of sanctions on Russia's central bank, along with removing select Russian banks from the SWIFT system and sanctions on Putin himself. On March 2, the Center for a New American Security hosted a panel moderated by Richard Fontaine and featuring Edward Fishman, Tom Keatinge, Emily Kilcrease, and Elina Ribakova to discuss what these new sanctions and export controls mean, how they will impact the Russian and global economies, and what to expect next in the economic domain from the United States and allies. Edward Fishman is an Adjunct Fellow at the Energy, Economics, and Security Program at the Center for a New American Security. Tom Keatinge is the D

In response to the escalating crisis in Ukraine, Germany recently announced several historic policy shifts over the past few days. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz indicated that Germany would deliver weapons to Ukraine, reversing Germany’s long-held refusal to deliver weapons to a conflict zone. Furthermore, Scholz announced that Germany would plan to spend more than 2% of GDP on defense spending year on year and would create a €100 billion investment fund for the armed forces. Claudia Major and Daniela Schwarzer join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Carisa Nietsche to assess this monumental shift in German foreign policy. Dr. Claudia Major is head of the International Security Division at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin (SWP). Her research, advisory work and publications focus on security and defense policy in Europe and in a transatlantic context, including NATO, EU, Germany, UK, and France. Previously, Claudia held positions at the Center for Security Studies at ETH Zurich, th

Russia’s swift and unprovoked invasion of the country this past week has been met with insane condemnations from leaders across the globe, including in the United States and Europe. As Russian soldiers engage in a full air and land operation on a massive scale, questions remain about how their military campaign might unfold as well as what the geopolitical implications might be for surrounding countries and the NATO alliance. On February 25, the Center for a New American Security hosted a panel featuring Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Richard Fontaine, Jeffrey Edmonds, and Michael Kofman to examine the unfolding crisis. Jeffrey Edmonds is an expert on US national security, especially as it relates to Russia. He works full time for CNA’s Russia Studies Program. Most recently, Jeff served as the Director for Russia on the National Security Council and acting Senior Director for Russia during the 2017 presidential transition. Prior to the NSC, Jeff served as a senior military analyst with the Central Intelligence Agen

Earlier this week, Russia escalated its ongoing aggression toward Ukraine by announcing that it would formally recognize the independence of the separatist territories of Donetsk and Luhansk, a decision that the Kremlin has backed up by deploying troops to both Eastern Ukrainian regions. In preparation for the possibility of a wider conflict, more serious sanctions have been threatened and additional troops have been moved to NATO’s eastern flank. Yet it remains unclear what Vladimir Putin’s next move will be—while many believe that he is poised to go further and launch a massive military attack against Ukraine, some have argued that he may stop short of a full-blown war. Rob Lee joins Andrea Kendall Taylor and Jim Townsend to assess the events and implications of this major global crisis. Rob Lee is a Senior Fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Eurasia Program, as well as a PhD student researching Russian defense policy at King’s College London’s War Studies Department. He is a former Marine in

Over the last 24-48 hours, there has been a dizzying number of new developments in the situation surrounding Ukraine and Russia, all of which are deeply concerning. This morning, the Kremlin formally accused the United States of ignoring the package nature of its proposal for security guarantees. This comes amid signs that Russia is creating pretexts for conflict, including spreading false claims of genocide in Donetsk and Luhansk, as well as shelling a Ukrainian village in the Donbas in an apparent attempt to bait Ukrainian forces into responded. Finally, Vladimir Putin is scheduled to soon address the entire Russian Federal Assembly, am ominous sign that a major action could be on the horizon. To make sense of this, Samuel Charap joins Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to discuss these recent, concerning developments. Samuel Charap is a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation, where he focuses on the foreign policies of Russia and the former Soviet states, as well as on European and Eurasi

Over the past week, the situation in Ukraine has seemed to have approached a critical juncture. U.S. intelligence has warned of an imminent Russian invasion that could begin any day now; yet at the same time, Moscow has insisted that it does not seek a military conflict and declared its continued openness to a diplomatic solution. Given Estonia’s status as a crucial NATO ally during this conflict, Foreign Minister Eva-Maria Liimets joins Andrea Kendall-Taylor to discuss the current conflict. Eva-Maria Liimets is the current Foreign Minister of Estonia. She previously served as the Estonian Ambassador to the Czech Republic as well as in numerous other posts throughout her long career as a foreign service professional.

Last Friday, the U.S. intelligence community revealed that it has reason to believe that Russian military action against Ukraine is imminent, with an invasion possibly occurring as soon as this week. Over the past few days, the Biden administration has begun evacuating the U.S. embassy in Kiev, instructed American citizens to leave Ukraine immediately, and reiterated its intention to forge a massive transatlantic response to any violation of Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Mike Kofman and Jeff Edmonds join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to help us make sense of this development. Mike Kofman is the Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at CNA as well as an Adjunct Senior Fellow at CNAS. His research focuses on Russia and the former Soviet Union, specializing in Russian armed forces, military thought, capabilities, and strategy. Jeff Edmonds is a Research Scientist with CNA’s Russia Studies Program and an Adjunct Senior Fellow at CNAS. His research focuses on the Russian military,

As the 2022 winter Olympics kicked off last Friday in Beijing, a high-profile meeting took place on the sidelines between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Following their meeting, Putin and Xi released a joint statement emphasizing their shared grievances with respect to the U.S.-led world order, condemning NATO enlargement as well as alleged attempts by outside forces to interfere in their internal affairs. Despite this show of solidarity, however, tensions remain in the relationship between Moscow and Beijing. Alexander Gabuev and David Shullman join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to help us make sense of this development. Alexander Gabuev is a senior fellow and the Chair of the Russia in the Asia-Pacific Program at the Carnegie Moscow Center. His research is focused on Russia’s policy toward East and Southeast Asia, political and ideological trends in China, and China’s relations with its neighbors. David Shullman is Senior Director of the Global China Hub at the A