Trend Lines

Voters in Germany will go to the polls in September for elections that will be unusually consequential for the country’s foreign and defense policy. Chancellor Angela Merkel is retiring after almost 16 years in the position, and three major parties recently announced their candidates to replace her. Much attention has focused on one of the candidates in particular: Annalena Baerbock of the Green party, which is surging in popularity and is likely to enter government as part of a coalition in the fall. This could allow the Greens to exercise influence over decision-making in Berlin. What would that mean for Germany’s approach to foreign policy and defense issues in the post-Merkel era? This week on Trend Lines, WPR’s Elliot Waldman digs into this question and more with Claudia Major, head of the international security research division at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.   If you like what you hear on Trend Lines and what you’ve read on WPR, you can sign up for our free newsletter t

During his campaign for the presidency last year, Joe Biden pledged to reverse what he called “the failed Trump policies” toward Cuba. But now, Biden’s White House is signaling that it is in no hurry to lift the severe sanctions and other measures imposed on Cuba by former President Donald Trump, much less return to the historic detente with Cuba that was pioneered by Biden’s old boss, former President Barack Obama.  As the Biden administration bides its time, Cuba’s aging leaders have passed the baton to a new generation. At the Communist Party’s eighth congress last month, Raul Castro stepped down as party chief, marking a transition of power to a new generation of leaders born after the 1959 revolution.  But that new generation was careful to telegraph that it does not plan to change Cuba’s political system or alter the government’s heavy-handed approach to dissent.  This week on Trend Lines, WPR’s Elliot Waldman is joined by Michael Bustamante, an assistant professor of Latin American History at Florid

Since last year, authorities in China have been conducting pilot programs for the country’s new digital currency. The project, which Beijing has been researching since 2014, is an example of what’s known as a central bank digital currency, which a number of other countries are experimenting with, but few of them are at as advanced a stage as China. A top official at China’s central bank recently expressed hope that the digital yuan would be ready for testing with foreign visitors and athletes during the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing. Beijing’s progress on its digital currency has led some commentators to fret that it could erode the primacy of the U.S. dollar in the global financial system. Those concerns are exaggerated, says Yaya Fanusie, an adjunct senior fellow in the Energy, Economics and Security Program at the Center for a New American Security. But as he and his co-author, Emily Jin, explain in a recent report, that doesn’t mean the digital yuan isn’t worth keeping an eye on for other reasons. Th

When U.S. President Joe Biden announced his decision last week to fully withdraw American troops from Afghanistan by Sept. 11, 2021, he justified it in part by pointing to an agreement signed by the Trump administration committing the U.S. to withdrawing by May 1. But he spent more time highlighting the disconnect between the original reasons the U.S. deployed its military to Afghanistan and the reasons now being used to justify its continued presence. “War in Afghanistan,” he said, “was never meant to be a multi-generational undertaking.” And yet, as Biden acknowledged in his speech, that is just what the “Forever War” has become, with U.S. soldiers now serving in Afghanistan who had not been born at the time of the attacks of 9/11. What impact has this long and in many ways forgotten war had on the U.S. military? And what has it meant for the role of the military in American society? In today’s Trend Lines interview, Andrew Exum joins WPR’s editor-in-chief Judah Grunstein to discuss those questions and mor

One of President Joe Biden’s first actions after taking office in January was to agree with Russian President Vladimir Putin on extending the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty. Better known as New START, it is the last remaining nuclear arms control agreement between Washington and Moscow, verifiably limiting each country to no more than 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads and 700 deployed delivery systems. The renewal of New START was widely welcomed by experts, given its important role in limiting the number of deployed nuclear weapons in the world. In a phone call this week, Biden and Putin discussed their intent to pursue further arms control talks, “building on the extension of the New START Treaty,” according to the White House’s readout. But it remains unclear how much further progress is possible, given the broader tensions in the U.S.-Russia relationship.  This week on Trend Lines, WPR’s Elliot Waldman is joined by Sarah Bidgood, the director of the Eurasia Nonproliferation Program at the James Marti

Throughout Donald Trump’s presidency, a recurring theme among the Washington foreign policy establishment was how to repair the damage he was doing to America’s global standing. For many, particularly the centrist current of the Democratic party, that meant restoring the traditional approach to American foreign policy that Trump consistently undermined during his four years in office.  But some figures on the party’s more progressive left wing saw returning to the status quo ante as insufficient. People like Reps. Ilhan Omar, Rashida Tlaib and Ro Khanna, as well as Sen. Bernie Sanders, began expanding the range of policy discussions and debates, in an attempt to advance a progressive foreign policy agenda. When Joe Biden won the presidential election last November, there was some question over whether this progressive agenda would be reflected in his foreign policy appointments. For now, it seems the Biden administration has opted for a centrist establishment team. But the push for a progressive U.S. foreign

This week on Trend Lines, Kevin Rudd, the former prime minister of Australia, joins WPR editor-in-chief Judah Grunstein to discuss the nature of the challenge China poses to the West, the implications of Xi Jinping’s rule, and the future prospects of both China’s rise and America’s global leadership role. If you like what you hear on Trend Lines and what you’ve read on WPR, you can sign up for our free newsletter to get our uncompromising analysis delivered straight to your inbox. The newsletter offers a free preview article every day of the week, plus three more complimentary articles in our weekly roundup every Friday. Sign up here. Then subscribe. Relevant Articles on WPR: When It Comes to Soft Power, China Is Already Outpacing the U.S. Beijing Will Come to Regret the End of Hong Kong’s Autonomy As China Rises and U.S. Influence Wanes, Australia Aims for Self-Reliance China’s Coronavirus Outbreak Exposes the Limits of Xi’s Centralized Power Is China’s Repressive Turn Under Xi a Sign of Strength—or Wea

“Where the state is absent or weak, non-state actors, such as religious movements and institutions, traditional ethnic polities, militant organizations, or combinations of all three, take its place, some for better, some for worse.” Those are the words of former U.S. Ambassador to Nigeria John Campbell, in his new book, “Nigeria and the Nation-State: Rethinking Diplomacy with the Post-Colonial World.” In it, he argues that U.S. diplomats should focus on working more with traditional, religious and local leaders—where real power often rests—and less with foreign ministries and weak heads of state. Campbell is currently Ralph Bunche senior fellow for Africa policy studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. He joins WPR’s Elliot Waldman on Trend Lines this week to discuss the ideas he lays out in his book, and what the U.S. needs to do to implement them. Relevant Articles on WPR: The U.S. Can Still Promote Democracy in Africa Why the U.S. Needs a Different Approach in Mali Why Africa’s Future Will Determine

Pope Francis traveled to Iraq earlier this month, his first trip overseas since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic and the first-ever papal visit to the war-torn country. Francis said he wrestled with concerns that the three-day visit could facilitate the spread of COVID-19, but ultimately deemed it a worthwhile opportunity to encourage and show solidarity with Iraq’s dwindling Christian minority. During his travels, the pontiff also highlighted a number of issues that he has devoted considerable attention to throughout his papacy, including poverty, interfaith dialogue and conflict resolution.  Joshua McElwee, the Vatican correspondent and international news editor for the National Catholic Reporter, had a front-row seat to this historic occasion as part of the press pool that traveled with Francis to Iraq. He joins WPR’s Elliot Waldman on the Trend Lines podcast this week to discuss the significance and symbolism of the trip.  Relevant Articles on WPR: The Pope’s Visit Exposed Iraq’s Lack of Reconst

On its first day in office, the Biden administration quietly placed temporary limits on counterterrorism drone strikes outside of active battlefields. According to the New York Times, which first broke the news last week, the new restrictions are intended as a stopgap while Biden’s national security team conducts a broader review of U.S. counterterrorism operations overseas—including whether to reverse policies put in place by the Trump administration that expanded the use of drone strikes. In light of the Biden administration’s more cautious stance on drone strikes and its renewed focus on multilateralism, some analysts have argued the U.S. should be part of a broader, international effort to limit the use of unmanned aerial vehicles in certain contexts. But what would such an effort look like in practice? How workable is it? And what other pressing international legal questions would need to be addressed? This week on Trend Lines, WPR’s Elliot Waldman digs into these questions with Charli Carpenter, a prof

Last month, after months of jockeying for influence, member states of the International Criminal Court held a secret ballot to determine the court’s next chief prosecutor. The winner was Karim Khan, a British lawyer with extensive experience on both the prosecutorial and defense side of international criminal cases. Khan will be only the third person to hold the job.  He will take over from the current chief prosecutor, Fatou Bensouda, at a time when the ICC faces some difficult questions about what kind of institution it will be. This week on Trend Lines, WPR’s Elliot Waldman is joined by Kyle Rapp, a doctoral candidate specializing in international law at the University of Southern California, to discuss Khan’s vision for the ICC and the difficult balancing act he will be faced with in his new role.   Relevant Articles on WPR: An ICC Investigation Into War Crimes Is Key to Securing Peace in Afghanistan The International Criminal Court Is in Danger of Being Bullied Into Irrelevance The ICC Is Flawed. Is I

Most African countries have fared relatively well in their responses to the coronavirus pandemic, reporting rates of infection and mortality that are far below those seen across much of Europe and the Americas. Yet Africa is expected to take a huge economic hit from the pandemic and its associated containment measures, with the African Development Bank forecasting that an additional 50 million people could be pushed into extreme poverty across the continent. Vaccination drives and economic relief packages will certainly be important to contain the damage. But according to author and researcher Efosa Ojomo, emerging-market nations should be aiming to build societies that are more resilient to economic shocks like the pandemic.  This week on Trend Lines, Ojomo joins WPR’s Elliot Waldman to discuss how the concept of “market-creating innovations” can foster broad-based solutions to poverty and other social problems in the wake of the pandemic. Ojomo is the head of the Global Prosperity research group at the Cl

Just over six months ago, Alexander Lukashenko, the authoritarian ruler of Belarus, was declared the winner of a presidential election. Like others before it, the outcome of the Aug. 9 vote was not in question—official results showed Lukashenko winning just over 80 percent of the ballots despite widespread reports of voter fraud and the violent suppression of opposition supporters. What happened next, though, was unprecedented. In the weeks and months after the rigged election, huge masses of people took to the streets of Minsk and other cities across Belarus to demand Lukashenko’s resignation, as well as the release of all political prisoners. The scale of the rallies has ebbed in recent months, but a core group of protesters has braved Lukashenko’s brutal security apparatus, as well as the bitter winter cold, to continue regular demonstrations.  This week on Trend Lines, WPR’s Elliot Waldman is joined by Dan Peleschuk, a freelance journalist and WPR contributor based in Kyiv, Ukraine, to discuss what might

Since he took office last month, President Joe Biden has moved quickly to overhaul Donald Trump’s immigration policies. Among other measures, the new administration has moved to rebuild the U.S. refugee resettlement program, which had been gutted under Trump; ended the “safe third country” agreements that aimed to force asylum-seekers to first register their claims in other nations before traveling to the United States; stopped construction of the wall along parts of the U.S. border with Mexico; and issued a 100-day pause on deportations, although that order has been temporarily blocked by a federal judge. Adam Isacson, a longtime WPR contributor who is currently the director for defense oversight at the Washington Office on Latin America, has been tracking the detrimental impacts of Trump’s immigration policies and their ripple effects in Central America. He joins WPR’s Elliot Waldman on the Trend Lines podcast this week to discuss Biden’s early moves on immigration.  Relevant Articles on WPR: America Ne

Around the world, the coronavirus pandemic has taken an especially high toll on women and girls. From public health to education to jobs and livelihoods, studies have revealed a gender disparity in the impact of COVID-19 that is particularly wide in lower- and middle-income countries. Yet for all the work that’s been done, experts say there’s still a lot they don’t know about how these impacts are being felt across different communities. To help address this problem, the Center for Global Development recently launched a new initiative to analyze the gendered impacts of the pandemic and study policy responses around the world with the aim of addressing the long-term causes of gender inequality. The leader of the initiative, Megan O’Donnell, discussed her work with WPR’s Elliot Waldman this week on the Trend Lines podcast.  Relevant Articles on WPR:   The Importance of Gender Inclusion in COVID-19 Responses ‘Don’t We Deserve More?’ Mexico’s Spike in Femicides Sparks a Women’s Uprising To Save the Economy Fro

North Korea’s ruling Workers’ Party has had a busy start to the year. Earlier this month, the Eighth Party Congress was held in the capital, Pyongyang: Eight days of meetings, including a 9-hour work report read out by leader Kim Jong Un himself. Just a couple days after those sessions wrapped up, Kim oversaw a celebratory military parade, the second one since October, featuring a new missile described by state media as the “world’s most powerful weapon.” New analysis of satellite imagery by the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute suggests Pyongyang could be preparing for a new test of a submarine-launched missile. According to Duyeon Kim, an adjunct senior fellow with the Asia-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security, these showy events, filled with pomp and fanfare, are designed to project strength at a time when North Korea’s economy is reeling from a “triple whammy” of sanctions, COVID-19 and consecutive natural disasters. She joined WP

The storming of the Capitol in Washington, D.C., by pro-Trump insurrectionists earlier this month was both shocking and utterly unsurprising. After all, for anyone paying attention to the rioters’ social media posts in the days and weeks leading up to the event, they made their intentions clear. A subset of the participants appeared to have technical training, and had laid meticulous plans well in advance of Jan. 6.  The attack on the Capitol, then, was a culmination—not just of the insurrectionists’ efforts to train and arm themselves for a violent revolt, but also of years of recruitment and radicalization by right-wing militias and other violent groups in the United States, all too often egged on by Donald Trump and his supporters.  But Jan. 6 was also the beginning of a dangerous new era in which attacks by violent extremists could become commonplace, says Colin Clarke, a specialist on domestic and transnational terrorism at the Soufan Group, an intelligence and security consultancy. This week on Trend Li

Flights between Saudi Arabia and Qatar are resuming this week and the land border has reopened between the two countries—signs of a thaw in relations after three and half years of acrimony. Last week, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt agreed to end a travel and trade blockade they had imposed on Qatar in 2017. Those four countries, calling themselves the “anti-terror quartet,” had accused Qatar of supporting radical Islamist groups, among other charges. The crisis had divided the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council, or GCC, and the United States had lobbied extensively for an end to the blockade. But according to Sanam Vakil, the deputy director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House in London, there remains a lot of work to do for the GCC to rebuild trust and address the disputes that caused relations to break down in the first place. This week on Trend Lines, Vakil joins WPR’s Elliot Waldman to discuss the lingering divisions and mistrust among Gulf countries R

If the European Union were a country, it would have the second-largest GDP in the world, ahead of China and just behind the United States. But it has consistently struggled to leverage its economic heft into geopolitical clout, at times due to internal divisions among member states over strategic priorities, but also because of their reluctance to relinquish control over sensitive questions of foreign and defense policy to Brussels. The debate over whether the EU should embrace a global role, how it can do so and what role it should play if it does has taken on greater urgency in the context of an international landscape increasingly characterized by strategic competition, particularly between the U.S. and China, but also on Europe’s periphery—in Ukraine, the Caucasus, Northern Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean.   In today’s big picture Trend Lines interview, Dr. Nathalie Tocci joins WPR editor-in-chief Judah Grunstein to discuss Europe’s role in an increasingly multipolar world. Dr. Tocci is the director

Nigeria’s ongoing battle with the violent extremist group Boko Haram took a worrying turn last month, when more than 300 young schoolboys were abducted from their boarding school in Katsina state, in northwestern Nigeria. Thankfully, the students were freed and reunited with their families a week later. But the attack carried chilling echoes of another mass abduction from 2014, when 276 female students were kidnapped from their school in the northeastern town of Chibok. More than 100 of those girls are still missing. While Boko Haram has taken credit for last month’s raid, experts and Nigerian officials say the true culprits were local “bandits” that have formed alliances with Boko Haram, which appears to be partnering with criminal gangs to expand its reach beyond its traditional base in the country’s northeast. This week on Trend Lines, WPR’s Elliot Waldman discusses the resurgence of Boko Haram with Bulama Bukarti, an analyst at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change and a nonresident senior associa