Trend Following With Michael Covel

My guest today is Robert Seawright, the Chief Investment & Information Officer for Madison Avenue Securities, a boutique broker-dealer and investment advisory firm headquartered in San Diego, California. Seawright is also a columnist for Research magazine, a Contributing Editor at Portfolioist as well as a contributor to the Financial Times, The Big Picture, The Wall Street Journal's MarketWatch, Pragmatic Capitalism, and ThinkAdvisor. The topic is his blog A New Kind Of Investment Outlook. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: How Seawright was able to put together this blog piece Perfection and prediction Bias blindness Volatility vs. risk Separating your politics from your investing Financial media as entertainment Whether Seawright encountered any pushback after putting out his article Letting go of the high leverage idea Why the more we trade The worse we do Nobel laureate David Baltimore Adversarial collaboration Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and

My guests today are Susan Polgar and Douglas Goldstein. Susan Polgar, American chess grandmaster, and Douglas Goldstein, Certified Financial Planner, had the unique idea of looking at chess and applying the wisdom to investing. The topic is their book Rich As A King: How the Wisdom of Chess Can Make You a Grandmaster of Investing. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Polgar's early history as a four-year-old chess playing prodigy, and the trouble some older males had in accepting her; nurture vs. nature; the connection between the Turtle story and chess; the skills that chess provides outside of just playing the game; the importance of keeping your emotions in check; process vs. outcome; and thinking through the possibilities from a chess perspective. Douglas Goldstein, Covel discusses how the idea came about to combine finance with chess in a book; tactics vs. strategy; and pattern recognition Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered

My guest today is Kabir Sehgal, a New York Times bestselling author and Grammy Award-winning producer. He is currently a vice president at JPMorgan Chase. Sehgal's new book, Coined: The Rich Life of Money and How Its History Has Shaped Us, caught Covel's eye. This is a subject layered in complexity and depth. Just about everything that goes on in our lives is decided by money and Sehgal digs into its story on a micro level. The topic is his book Coined: The Rich Life of Money and How Its History Has Shaped Us. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Sehgal's history Sehgal's experience winning a Grammy for production and the idea of "no boxes" Why Sehgal sees his life like a jazz composition Defining money as a symbol of value The neurological effects and artistic aspects of money The currency of the natural world Whether Sehgal sees "money as the root of all evil" The idea of charity The politics of money The internationalization of currency Hyperinflation Gold, and Sehgal's experience going to

Please enjoy my monologue Trend Following Attitude with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive. --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversat

My guest today is David Stockman. Those that follow business and politics in the United States will recognize his name. Stockman has been a businessman, a Congressman, and Director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan. The topic is his book The Great Deformation: The Corruption of Capitalism in America. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Woodrow Wilson piece How Wilson brought the US into World War I and how the pain of the 1930's and the pivot point of the 20th century was connected Why the ATM's going dark in 2008 wasn't a true possibility Zero interest rate policy and how we're forcing people to spend down principal How the Fed can generate massive bubbles Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my s

My guest today is Jerry Parker, an original Turtle, trained by Richard Dennis. However, since then he has very successfully run a managed money firm called Chesapeake Capital. The topic is Trend Following. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Series of tweets written by Parker and use them as a jumping-off point for conversation. Topics include price action, "normal" market behavior Recent moves in the Swiss Franc Paying attention to entries as well as exits Why investors are often their own worst enemy The first moment that Parker heard about price-based trading Becoming obsessed with asymmetrical risk and reward Why looking at trend following losses is important Why you can tell a system is robust if it has big drawdowns Backtesting and treating all trades with equal weight Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, e

My guest today is Sophia Roosth, a Harvard professor that Covel first heard quoted on DNA privacy from Davos. Roosth's research focuses on the twentieth and twenty-first century life sciences. Her first book, based on four years of ethnographic fieldwork, examines how the life sciences are changing at a moment when researchers build new biological systems in order to investigate how biology works. In this work, Roosth asks what happens to "life" as a conceptual category when experimentation and fabrication converge. The topic is science. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Davos event What becomes of privacy in a moment of internet surveillance Having more information out there as a way to control privacy Biological privacy, and whether our DNA is going down a path where it's a lot more public Discrimination based on genome Genetic McCarthyism Somatic transfer and cloning The story of Chance the bull The idea of de-extinction The ethics of cloning Molecular gastronomy and world hunger Jump

My guest today is Michael Lardon, one of the premier mental performance coaches in the world, with clients in more than a dozen professional and Olympic sports. His athletes have won major golf championships, Olympic gold medals, Super Bowls and World Series titles, among other achievements. He is an Associate Clinical Professor of Medicine at the University of California San Diego and a Consulting Psychiatrist to the United States Olympic Teams at the Olympic Training Center in Chula Vista, CA. The topic is mental performance coaching. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Lardon's early experiences playing professional table tennis; the "slowing down of time" and how it affects performance The importance of mental performance in sports Phil Mickelson's loss at the 2013 Open and his win at the British Open a month later, and how Lardon was assisting him during this period "The yips", and what is going on in the mind when someone can no longer perform a simple activity they used to accomplish

Please enjoy Mike Shell Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!

My guest today is Salem Abraham, the President of Abraham Trading Company with a 27-year track record. Salem graduated cum laude from the University of Notre Dame in December 1987 with a bachelor's degree in finance. He began his investing career as a futures trader while still in college, using quantitative models to trade global futures markets beginning in 1987. The topic is Trend Following. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Living in Asia and Asian economics A market lesson Abraham first learned in 1987 The recent action of the Swiss Franc Artificially priced markets and the analogy of a dam Crude Oil as a trend Speculation at the core of Abraham's business and its effect on markets generally The effect of Abraham's grandfather on his work The influences on Abraham's thinking and business decisions Location independence The importance of a link to the outside world Avoiding disaster Being agnostic to the market Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm

My guest today is Christopher Chabris, an American research psychologist, currently Associate Professor of Psychology and co-director of the Neuroscience Program at Union College in Schenectady, New York, Adjunct Assistant Professor of Neurology at Albany Medical College and a Research Affiliate at the MIT Center for Collective Intelligence. The topic is his book The Invisible Gorilla: How Our Intuitions Deceive Us. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Witnesses, memory, and the legal system Expert witness testimony "The play that changed poker" Mastery in any field The connection between chess and memory Chabris' interaction with Neil deGrasse Tyson, and how memory affects our outlook The stock market, prediction, and forecasting The importance of confidence with regard to predictions Simple rules vs. complex rules Oprah Winfrey, Malcolm Gladwell, and intuition Memory and the influx of information coming at us Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud

Please enjoy my monologue Michael Covel Monologue and Peter Shankman Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive. --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my ne

My guest today is Gary Antonacci. Antonacci focuses on two issues in the quant world: relative strength price momentum with trend following absolute momentum. He's developed a strategy where he believes it's best to combine both.  The topic is his book Dual Momentum Investing: An Innovative Strategy for Higher Returns with Lower Risk. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Momentum vs. trend Relative strength momentum, cross sectional momentum, absolute momentum, and time series momentum Trend following vs. managed futures as terms Antonacci's early history and how he found his way into the career he has today Three legendary traders that crossed paths with Antonacci early on The efficient market hypothesis as a less-than-solid foundation Buying higher highs Ray Dalio and risk parity strategies Academic perspectives on momentum The interaction and correlation between the two momentum strategies (relative and absolute) Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm p

My guest today is Michael Mauboussin, an investment strategist in the financial services industry, professor at the Columbia Graduate School of Business, and serves on the board of trustees at the Sante Fe Institute (an independent, nonprofit theoretical research institute). He is managing director and head of Global Financial Strategies at Credit Suisse, where he advises clients on valuation and portfolio positioning, capital markets theory, competitive strategy analysis, and decision making. The topics are his books More Than You Know and Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Multi-disciplinary thinking and its influence on Covel Looking at larger reference classes The Swiss Franc Mauboussin's personal take on the recent oil move Fundamentals and expectation Luck or skill when it comes to trading profits The paradox of skill, absolute, and relative skill Whether scientific principles of luck exist Defining luck Outcome bias The general p

My guest today is Peter Larson, an American paleontologist, fossil collector, and president of the Black Hills Institute of Geological Research, a company that excavates, prepares, and sells fossils. He led the team that excavated "Sue", the largest and most complete specimen of Tyrannosaurus rex found to date, and has published numerous scientific and popular works on dinosaur paleontology. The topic is paleontology. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Luck's role in finding dinosaurs Larson's personal anecdotes about finding "Sue" Whether Larson knew at the time that he was finding a piece of "land" in a legal sense The scientific data that Larson was able to glean before the government took the bones Telling a male dinosaur from a female dinosaur What makes Larson a T-Rex entrepreneur T-Rex as a predator or scavenger The legal case surrounding "Sue" Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. I

My guest today is Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, a French physicist. He is co-founder and Chairman of Capital Fund Management, adjunct professor at École Normale Supérieure and co-director of the CFM-Imperial Institute of Quantitative Finance at Imperial College London. The topic is Trend Following. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: His firm's performance for 2014 Whether trend following actually "died" prior to it's "reappearance" in 2014 What trend following manages to exploit Exploiting vs. exploring Looking at volatility as a precursor to profit Volatility as a measure of risk Trend following as a genuine market anomaly The behavioral biases in play as oil has fallen fifty percent plus The feedback Bouchaud has received from peers on his newest paper Whether other strategies exploit a genuine market anomaly Bouchaud's philosophy on transparency and "secrets" in his work Why Bouchaud's work culture is not a culture of MBA's Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, an

My guest today is Dan Hill, a recognized authority on the role of emotions in consumer and employee behavior. He runs Sensory Logic, a scientific insights firm that analyzes consumers' facial expressions to help companies better navigate consumers' emotional decision-making processes. The topic is consumer and employee behavior. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: What a face coding expert is The evolutionary aspect to face coding and the 43 muscles present in the face; emotional decision-making How Hill found his way personally into this field Why we feel before we think Being hired by the Milwaukee Bucks The importance of a smile in the heart of a champion The difference between technical skill and the factors that Hill is looking for The importance of having the right amount of happiness Some of the limitations of facial coding How technology is intertwined with facial coding Why a personality like Richard Nixon may never be President again The say/feel gap Whether we can learn how to avo

My guest today is Mebane Faber, a noted author (The Ivy Portfolio), blogger, and portfolio manager with Cambria Investment Management. Faber is involved in many different areas of the market, extremely practical and pragmatic. The topic is Trend Following. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: The podcast medium Trend following, buy & hold, and emotions Anti-fragility Ray Dalio, risk parity, and his strategies All Weather and Pure Alpha Asset allocation as a buy and hold investor Faber's five ETF's, and his factors for starting one Deflation, inflation, Japan, why traders run out of the store when things are on sale Value investing What if governments didn't meddle with markets Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To star

My guest today is Daniel Simons, an experimental psychologist, cognitive scientist, and Professor in the Department of Psychology and the Beckman Institute for Advanced Science and Technology at the University of Illinois. Simons is most well known for his work on change blindness and inattentional blindness, two surprising examples of how people can be unaware of information right in front of their eyes. His research interests also include visual cognition, perception, memory, attention, and awareness. The topics are experimental psychology and cognitive science. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Simons' YouTube success The definition of inattentional blindness Why our intuition about our own minds is often wrong Money managers and weather forecasters Serial tasking, multitasking, and focus How Simons became immersed in this area of study Memory and attention, and the myths and misconceptions surrounding them The notion of intuition, gut decisions, and Simons' thoughts on Malcolm Gladwell

My guest today is Mark Mobius, Ph.D., executive chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group, joined Templeton in 1987. Currently, he directs the Templeton research team which is based in 18 global emerging markets offices, and manages emerging markets portfolios. Mobius oversees a team of more than 50 people managing some $45 billion. The topic is economics. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Key events that happened along Mobius' development and moved him to find emerging markets as his passion Growth across Asia The importance of being on the ground to see what's happening in China to have a true picture of what's going on Why what's happening in China now is entirely different from the USSR in the early 1980's Mobius' view on South East Asia, its economic and constructional changes The two Koreas, and whether we'll see one Korea eventually The impact of both North and South Korea on their own Mobius' outlook on Myanmar Singapore as an emerging market, and as it is compared to a city in