Trend Following With Michael Covel

The popular life scripts that were a surefire path to success in the 20th century no longer work today. “Go to college and get a steady job until you retire” is no longer the optimal choice. Yet many people still believe that if they push harder or work more within these old scripts, they will succeed. But much like in trend following, continuing to be mentally attached to a trend that is on the decline will only result in further losses. In today’s world, the opportunities and rewards associated with entrepreneurship are many. As college tuition rises, the value of a degree decreases, and with many jobs going dinosaur, entrepreneurship is becoming a smarter choice for many – and a less risky choice than standard issue job thinking. Today’s podcast guest Taylor Pearson is the 26-year old author of the #1 Amazon best selling book The End of Jobs. Pearson has spent the last several years researching and traveling the world and talking to successful entrepreneurs, which inspired him to write the book. In this ep

Many of the investment and trading approaches available today simply do not perform the same way in the real world as they do during simulation. This is why it's important to “look under the hood” of your trading strategy to understand how something works instead of simply taking it on faith. In this episode, Eric Crittenden talks about creating a mutual fund based on trend following principles, why investment returns are not normally distributed, how financial simulations differ from the real world, and how to control risk in a trend following system. Eric has many insights into trend following and trading in general, and has the financial data to back up his findings. He has also published several research papers on the matter, which are linked to below. In this episode of Trend Following Radio: -Relative momentum vs. time momentum -Survivorship bias in the financial advisory market -Defining risk – how much are you willing to lose? -Why trend following works for both high-risk and low-risk assets -Iden

There is often misunderstanding among the general public when it comes to probability and risk. For example, 20% of Americans believe they are in the top 1% of income earners, or are soon to be there. This is, of course, statistically impossible. Statistical thinking needs to have a bigger focus in our society, especially since the amount of data we have to deal with on a daily basis is constantly increasing. We need systems to help us sift through the noise. Today’s episode is a selection of excerpts from some of the brightest minds of today and yesterday, and their takes on systematic and statistical thinking. Michael Covel provides the commentary. Though this is not strictly a trend following episode, all the material is very much applicable and relevant for anyone in trading or business. From Penn Jillette (of Penn & Teller) to Gerd Gigerenzer, to Daniel Dennett, to Richard Feynman, this episode is permeated with wisdom to help you cultivate a trend following mindset. In this episode of Trend Followin

Today’s podcast guest is Chris Clarke, ex-Goldman Sachs executive director and founder of Lawrence Clarke Investment Management. Clarke has been developing trading systems for decades. The conversation today gets into the psychology of systems trading. Trend following is inherently simple to understand, and does not require above-average intelligence once the system is in place. Yet so many people, including most fund managers, tend to downplay trend following and keep seeking the “holy grail” – a magical system that will supposedly make them money without any downside. An interesting metaphor for this that Chris offers is that of weight loss. Although the theory of it is simple (diet and exercise), most people keep seeking the magic bullet that will make them achieve results without following the system. Much the same with trading. Another topic that Michael Covel and Chris Clarke talk about is understanding the difference between risk and drawdowns. Drawdowns are normal, and will be there for as long as tre

An article recently appeared in Forbes, entitled “What Jurassic World Can Teach Investors About The Stock Market”. In it is an interview with Ben Carlson on why simplicity trumps complexity when it comes to investment strategies. Although not explicitly about trend following, the article brings up points about the poor historical performance of financially engineered assets and the superiority of simple systems. In this monologue, Michael Covel talks about his desire to seek the truth, and the importance of taking personal responsibility for your actions. He also breaks apart the Forbes article on simplicity vs. complexity, and the logical reasons why trend following systems have historically performed better than others. Also in this episode: the recent study that shows that metal-heads from the 80s are happier and better adapted than their peers. In this episode of Trend Following Radio: Why simple strategies are better than complex ones The importance of defining your risk as a number How risk and reward

Continuing the theme of speculation and gambling from the previous episode, today’s Trend Following Radio guest is Blair Hull. Hull got his start playing blackjack in Nevada casinos, and later moved onto trading. He founded his investment firm, Hull Investments, in 1999. The company, which leveraged technological innovations and quantitative models, was one of the world’s premier market-making firms, trading on 28 exchanges in nine countries. The parallels in Hull’s approach to gambling and trading are many. He stresses the importance of objectivity and sticking to the system, especially during a losing streak when emotions run high. It’s not only about brain power, it’s about discipline. In this interview, Blair Hull and Michael Covel talk about the parallels between blackjack and stock trading, the importance of money management and discipline when following systems, and the future of trading and market prediction. In this episode of Trend Following Radio: The importance of having a strategy and sticking t

Speculation has become a pejorative for some in recent times. A quick search yields the following definition of speculation: “forming a theory about a subject without firm evidence.” Yet if we look at the origin of the word, “speculor” means “to observe” in Latin. To speculate is to observe, and to make decisions based on those observations. In business and in life, there are ultimately two choices: to speculate or to gamble. The difference between the two is simple: the first has a strategy behind it; the second does not. The first relies on predetermined parameters for making decisions; while the second leaves decisions up to circumstance or emotion. In this monologue, Michael Covel talks about the philosophical foundation of success: speculation. This episode features many notable quotes from famous economists and traders, going back as far as the 1800s. The wisdom of these men is the foundation of trend following, and is as relevant today as ever. In this episode of the Trend Following podcast: why specul

My guest today is Francisco Vaca. Vaca can be called a second generation turtle trader. He worked with Richard Dennis at C & D Commodities, and for the last 15 years has been closely associated with Paul Rabar. He is now the Co-Chief Investment Officer at Rabar Market Research. Before he became a trader, Vaca was a particle physicist and worked at the famous Fermi lab. This is not an insignificant fact, as his background in mathematics and statistics became very useful in his career as a trader. The topic is Trend Following. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: The importance of distinguishing between long term and short term track records "Alpha" and "beta" trading strategies How the holding period length affects the risk-reward profile and return streaks The benefits of diversification across different holding times Using high frequency trading technology in long term trend following How correlations are often misinterpreted Knowing the limitations of your tools Jump in! --- I'm MICHAE

Please enjoy my monologue "Pas de Dough" with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive. --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!

My guest today is Campbell Harvey, a finance professor at Duke university, and research associate with the National Bureau of Economic Research in Massachusetts. His research papers on these subjects have been published in many scientific journals. The topic is Trend Following. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Survivorship bias, and not being fooled by randomness Why people with higher risk tolerance experience much higher upsides Understanding process vs. outcome The difference between volatility and skew The importance of recognizing that asset returns are rarely "normally distributed" When it is appropriate to apply a general framework, and when it is not The Sharpe ratio – is it always relevant? Harry Markowitz, Jim Simons, and Nassim Taleb Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend fo

Please enjoy my monologue The China Trip with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive. --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!

My guest today is Jonathan Fader, a licensed clinical psychologist and is the team psychologist to the NY Mets baseball team. Fader also writes a blog for Psychology Today entitled 'The New You'. He maintains an active clinical practice, is an assistant professor of Family Medicine at the Albert Einstein College of Medicine and teaches in the Beth Israel Residency Program in Family Medicine in New York City. The topic is sports psychology. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Fader discusses motivational interviewing, sport psychology techniques, process v. outcome, the mistake of focusing only on results, mental state and stress, mindfulness, Facebook distraction, Eastern traditions, the moment of now, and quieting the mind. Issues discussed apply to life, trading, sports and business–Fader offers insights we can all use. Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psycholo

Please enjoy my monologue Talk About The Passion with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive. --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversatio

My guest today is Ed Seykota, a commodities trader, who earned S.B. degrees in Electrical Engineering from MIT and Management from the MIT Sloan School of Management, both in 1969. In 1970 he pioneered Systems trading by using early punched card computers to test ideas on trading the markets. Originally profiled in the classic book 'The Market Wizards', Seykota has played a pivotal role in the growth of trend following trading for 40 years.  The topic is Trend Following. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Govopoly Trading Tribe Trend Following Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more abo

Please enjoy my monologue The Babe Ruth Effect: Frequency v. Magnitude with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive. --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-endi

My guest today is Steve Burns. He has been investing in the stock market for over 20 years. He is the author of seven books, ranks near the top 500 of all reviewers on Amazon.com, and is one of the sites top reviewers for books about trading. Additionally, Burns has single-handedly developed an exceptional Twitter following. The topic is trading. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Self-publishing world How one goes about making choices in social media Getting over the obstacle of fundamentals Mindfulness and the writings of Alan Watts Backtesting processes Brand new traders being introduced to a model that loses 60% of the time Survivorship bias Predictive vs. reactive technical analysis Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show

My guest today is Tim Larkin, one of America's leading Pro-Victim Rights and Personal Safety Advocates. He has had a 25 year career where he has trained over 10,000 clients in 52 countries in how to deal with imminent violence. The topics are his books How To Survive The Most Critical 5 Seconds Of Your Life and Survive The Unthinkable. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Virginia Tech killings and why it is important to study violence Looking at sports injuries for the purpose of self-defense Honor in fighting The relation between prison gang leaders and CEOs The importance of focusing on the man and his mind rather than the tool Avoidable acts of violence Why the United Kingdom did not allow Larkin into the country Avoiding violence from a game theory perspective. Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneu

Please enjoy my monologue Logical Fallacies and Zero Sum with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive. --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast con

My guests today are Michael Melissinos and Glenn Graham. Michael has assumed research and trading responsibilities. He also works on his emotional and mental game with the help of his local Trading Tribe. Tribe helps him maintain discipline through tough performance periods, remain inventive and push the envelope of improving the firm's investing and education strategy. He previously held positions at Rothstein Kass, Bear Stearns and J.P. Morgan.  Glenn's firm is Golden Point Capital. Graham has had extensive experience in quantitative trading strategy development in the futures space. He holds the designation of Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA), a designation focusing on the alternative asset classes. The topic is Trend Following. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Covel and Melissinos discuss Melissinos' career and beginnings; his history with Bear Sterns; Melissinos' introduction to trend following; "find trends, align with trends, and manage risks"; the similarities betwe

My guest today is Donald MacKenzie, a Professor of Sociology at the University of Edinburgh, Scotland. He works on the sociology of markets, focusing on automated trading, the use of mathematical models, and the evaluation and trading of bonds. MacKenzie has worked in the past on topics ranging from the sociology of nuclear weapons to the meaning of proof in the context of computer systems critical to safety or security. The topic is his book An Engine, Not A Camera: How Financial Models Shape Markets. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Economic models Self-fulfilling prophecies and economics Our beliefs and the social world The definition of performativity Mackenzie's analysis and study of the Black-Scholes model Long Term Capital Management Reflexivity The intellectual gap between purveyors of the efficient market hypothesis vs. behavioral economists as reflected in the 2014 Nobel Prize winners The arms race in high frequency trading. Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOL