Trend Following With Michael Covel

Do you buy and hold Bitcoin? For those who have held on through the turbulence it has turned out well–so far. Michael reads a lively blog post from a few years back regarding the right way to trade, the wrong way to trade and all the emotions people feel in-between. Michael breaks the post apart with commentary.

Charles Faulkner is back on the podcast today. Faulkner is an author, trader, and international expert on modeling the knowledge and performance of exceptional individuals. He was originally featured in “The New Market Wizards” by Jack Schwager. Faulkner has had one of the most popular podcasts on Trend Following Radio. His new work is centered on deciphering the complicated from the complex. Warren Buffett recently said, “In terms of crypto currencies, generally, I can say with almost certainty that they will come to a bad ending. When it happens or how or anything else, I don’t know.” What does Faulkner make of Buffett’s prediction? With all this new technology and language most will turn to others for advice. Unfortunately, there are a lot of fortune tellers pushing agendas. The idea of forecasting is to make people move. It is a way of getting people into action and doing things they would never do if they knew the truth. “Why can’t the magical thinkers be accurate?” Charles points out that unfortunately

Michael reaches back and brings on three authors from the archives with three great books: Fascinate, Simple Rules and Visual Intelligence. In this episode of Trend Following Radio: Sally Hogshead on Fascination Kathleen Eisenhardt on Simple Rules Amy Herman on Visual Intelligence

Cognitive dissonance is everywhere. Michael quotes from an article by Alwyn Lau titled “Quick to Attack and Condemn: Why We do It.” Trumps presidency has produced arguably the greatest case of cognitive dissonance in history. Many cognitive dissonance with the markets. What is the best way to counter cognitive dissonance? Take a minute, stop, and look for an alternative explanation. Stop hallucinating and start studying. Read perspectives from both sides and educate yourself. Staying attached to news and breaking headlines only feeds the problem. Are you in cognitive dissonance about markets? Politics? Have you given yourself a back test? In this episode of Trend Following Radio: Cognitive dissonance Donald Trump Fact checking Bitcoin Breaking news

“The Edge… there is no honest way to explain it because the only people who really know where it is are the ones who have gone over.” –Hunter S. Thompson Taking the lead from Thompson...Michael goes in search of the edge.

Ben Hardy started blogging in May of 2015 and in just under three years has gained over 300,000 email subscribers and become the most followed writer on Medium.com. Ben is also just a few months away from his PHD in organizational psychology at age 29. His three foster children, as well as personal experiences, inspired his new book, “Willpower Doesn’t Work: Discover the Hidden Keys to Success.” Ben sees willpower as a fight against the natural environment and consequentially, a losing battle. Getting out of typical environments helps to see things from the outside and remove yourself from the echo chamber of mass society. Experiencing emotion, both good and bad, is also important. Finding a sacred space that triggers good emotions is important to mix into daily routine – a place to go everyday that re-centers you, and you look forward to going. How does Ben have time to write new articles, with great content, and continue growing his following? We live in an information world and having the right writing ski

The kick in the ass motivational screed for 2018. Enjoy!

George Anders is a New York Times best selling author and journalist who has written for national publications spanning over 30 years. He shared a Pulitzer Prize for National Reporting in 1997, while at The Wall Street Journal. Michael is a huge fan of George’s classic, “Merchants of Debt” published in 1992. His most recent work is “You Can Do Anything: The Surprising Power of ‘Useless’ Liberal Arts Education.” “You Can Do Anything” shows how humanizing technology has become one of the fastest growing jobs. 6% of technology jobs are programmer based with the other 94% being human relations based. Social media, branding, psychology, etc.–they have nothing to do with coding but are just as essential to running a successful technology based company. George gives one example of an exceptional sales person he met who happened to be an English major. He sat beside her and witnessed first hand why she was so exceptional at selling – it was how she talked to people and fostered relationships with customers over the p

Happy new year and please enjoy my all day 11-hour compilation covering 3 of my favorite guests. A timeless reminder to start 2018 the right way! And if you don't want to listen all the way through then enjoy my opening intro rant!

Ozan Varol is a rocket scientist, author and award-winning law professor. His contrarian view show throughout his writings and interviews. He focuses primarily on showing how extraordinary thinking produces extraordinary results. Ozan’s newest books are The Democratic Coup d’État and Comparative Constitutional Law: A Global and Interdisciplinary Approach. Michael and Ozan Varol take a winding path through modern life across politics, geography and the proper way to argue. In this episode of Trend Following Radio: Extraordinary thinking The Democratic Coup d’État Contrary thinking

A Merry Christmas podcast designed to challenge traditional thinking. Hint: Watch out for the biases and do the work.

Ken Blanchard is an author and management expert. His writing career spans over 60 books with his most successful being “The One Minute Manager” selling over 13 million copies. “The One Minute Manager” was first self published by Ken and his co-author and released in 1982. It quickly sold over 20,000 copies with no publicity, giving them a leg up when they were ready to negotiate publishing deals. Ken’s students span all backgrounds from large companies to entrepreneurs. His books have been translated into 40+ languages and the lessons and training he provides translates to all ages in all countries. Where did it all start for Ken? Ken’s dad was an admiral in the Navy. He gave up a career on Wall Street to join the Navy and fight on the front lines of WWII. He taught Ken invaluable leadership qualities that he passes on throughout his books and in his training. What was one of his biggest lessons? You are only as good as the men around you. Ken teaches three key lessons in one minute managing: one minute goal

Cryptocurrency is sweeping the world. From taxi drivers to Instagram bikini models – everyone is talking about getting rich off it. Millions of people are willing to jump on board immediately–whether it’s a good or bad idea. Building off that thought… Michael recently posted this question to listeners: “You have a trading strategy that you have tested over and over but you lose 5% the first year using it, what conclusions do you draw from that?” He reads feedback from listeners who are willing to throw their strategy away after having one down period. Warren Buffett, however, has famously said that if you cannot afford to lose 50% of your portfolio then you shouldn’t be trading – what do you think he would say about a mere 5%? Michael finishes the podcast reaching back into his archives and pulling some trading rules from past trading legends. He calls this list his “43 Kickass Trading Rules for Bitcoin and Crypto Trading.” In this episode of Trend Following Radio: Bitcoin Cryptocurrency Volatility

Robin Hanson is an associate professor of economics at George Mason University and a research associate at the Future of Humanity Institute of Oxford University. He is an expert on idea futures and markets, was involved in the creation of the Foresight Institute’s Foresight Exchange, and DARPA’s Future MAP project. He is co-author of “The Elephant in the Brain: Hidden Motives in Everyday Life.” And today Robin and Michael dive right into the heart of our hidden motives. “The Elephant in the Brain” helps confront hidden motives embedded in the brain–things people don’t like to talk about, also known as, elephants in the room. Robin shows that once our brains are able to confront these blind spots, we can better have a grasp on ourselves and the motivations behind how we think–which of course can then lead to possibly better policy. Think about it: Why does one person find another attractive? Why do we laugh? Robin answers these questions and more throughout his work. He forces you to dig into the deeper, darke

Very experienced guys make great interviews. They bring age, perspective and wisdom to the table. Tom DeMark and Perry Kaufman are two men that have previously been on the podcast that exemplify this statement. Michael went back into the archives to bring these men and their interviews on the podcast today. Perry Kaufman is an American systematic trader, index developer, and quantitative financial theorist. He is considered a leading expert in the development of fully algorithmic trading programs. He currently is president of Kaufman Analytics. Tom DeMark is founder and CEO of DeMark Analytics and the creator of the DeMark Indicators. Tom considers himself a market timer and believes that fundamentals are critical; however, he and Michael still have a lot in common. His work is price and technically driven. In this episode of Trend Following Radio: Price movement Fundamentals Technical analysis behind the scenes Elliott wave The Fibonacci sequence Forecasting George Soros Michael Steinhardt Paul Tudor Jones

Matt Smith is CEO of Royalty Exchange, an online rights platform where users sell portions of their royalty income and investors bid on it. The primary goal of Royalty Exchange is to make royalty streams investable. They have held over 200 auctions in the last 18 months where artists and investors interact in the buying and selling of royalties. Recently Matt launched a sister company Royalty Flow–created to purchase larger royalty streams and get more investors involved. What is the process of Royalty Flow? Investors can buy shares through a platform called Folio, those shares are then transferred to a major exchange like Nasdaq. Royalty Flow was created after being approached to buy Eminem’s royalties. Royalty Flow provides a way for a pool of investors to purchase. What are motivations for investors to buy royalties? Investors view this as a hedging strategy because it is uncorrelated to their other portfolios. In contrast, what are some motivations for selling off royalties? There are hundreds of thousand

Larry Hite recently called Michael and left him a voicemail regarding podcast episode #606. Larry has seen his share of ups and downs and has had a great career so praise from Larry was a nice surprise. Michael follows Larry’s praise by sharing a recent Facebook conversation with a critic. The conversation ensued regarding a post quoting Sam Harris. The back and forth that began with this Facebook “friend” starts with her calling Michael dogmatic (among other things) and by the end of the banter she evolves to calling him a cult leader. What is the takeaway from this conversation? Develop a system for dealing with people and their opinions. What is a key thing to keep in mind while developing that system? Not everyone’s opinion matters. In this episode of Trend Following Radio: Trend Following 5th Edition Dogmatic Trend following performance How to filter trolls Sock puppets Sorting the real from the fake

Michael Gervais is a high performance psychologist. He works with top performers to train and implement skills necessary to pursuing and revealing one’s maximum potential. His clients include world record holders, Olympians, internationally acclaimed artists and musicians, MVPs from every major sport and Fortune 100 CEOs. He is also co-founder of Compete to Create. Part of Michael’s training is helping clients realize there are things we are in control of and things we are not in control of – therefore focus on what you can control. We can train our bodies, our craft and mind. Michael teaches clients through science based research that refining ALL three of these areas are essential to becoming successful. So what does world class awareness look like and how do you achieve it? There are no words that can capture what awareness is, but when someone becomes fully aware, it is as if they are fully engrossed in the task at hand. They have an intimate understanding of how their thoughts, actions, and words are lin

Michael explores two of his favorite monologues covering Roger Waters of Pink Floyd fame and trader Nicolas Darvas.

Tim Larkin is one of America’s leading Pro-Victim Rights and Personal Safety Advocates. He has had a 25 year career training over 10,000 clients in 52 countries in how to deal with imminent violence. His books include How To Survive The Most Critical 5 Seconds Of Your Life and Survive The Unthinkable. His newest book is When Violence Is the Answer: Learning How to Do What It Takes When Your Life Is at Stake. Tim’s father was an officer in the Navy. He knew at the age of 13 he was going to be a Navy Seal. His whole adolescence and early adulthood was dedicated to that goal. After college he started his Seal training. Toward the end, with just a couple weeks left of rigorous training, he went out on a routine training dive and a wave hit his ear. Tim burst his eardrum and his career was over. This was the first time, at age 21, his body had failed him. Sometimes the smallest things, like an eardrum bursting, can change your whole course of life. This lesson learned early on by Tim translates to everything he no