Weather With Cliff Mass

Chance of showers, chance of sunbreaks — so what do probability forecasts really mean?

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Synopsis

As May begins, the weather continues to offer that typical grab bag of conditions that is typical for spring in the Northwest: plenty of clouds, along with showers, sunbreaks, even possible thunderstorms. And often, forecasts predict the probability of these phenomena: a 10 percent chance of rain, say — or 50 percent chance. That sounds plausible, but it turns out most people don’t know what that actually means.