Afford Anything | Make Smart Choices About Your Money, Time And Productivity

#56: Former professional Poker player Billy Murphy has an intriguing story. He achieved financial independence at age 29, and he did this by applying a concept known as "expected value" to his online businesses. In this episode, I chat with Billy about how expected value is more than just a formula; it’s a framework for how to evaluate your options; how to assess risk, reward, probability, and variance. Let's back up a little. What is expected value? It’s the sum of all possible values for a variable, with each value multiplied by its probability of occurrence. “Whaaaa? What does that mean?” Here’s a simple example:   Imagine that you have a full-time job. You’ve also built a side business that’s earning $20,000 per year. You’re trying to decide whether to stay in your full-time job vs. quit your job and focus on growing your side hustle into a full-time business. You ask your two best friends for their opinion. One says, “that’s risky! What if you fail?” The other says, “you could become a millionaire