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Diagnostic medicine is not simple – Casey Parker discusses the finer points of the diagnostic process in critical care. Diagnosis is not black and white. The world is not black and white. It is all shades of grey and about probability. One tool that clinicians have to deal with probability is Bayes’ theorem. Since it was first described in 1763 Bayes’ theorem has been applied, rejected, and rediscovered in many fields. Its use in medical diagnostics is a relatively recent phenomenon. This talk will review the history of Bayes in medicine. Since 1763 the medical world has made dramatic leaps forward. However, Bayes’ theorem still has its place. It has been made more accessible with nomograms and more recently handy clinical decision-making tools in the form of smartphone apps. Casey helps you put all this together by elaborating on the diagnostic process. Firstly, is the pre-test probability – how likely is a disease in any given population. Not all populations are the same. Therefore, depending on where you w