NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 9th September 2020US equities have had a third session with substantial falls. NAB’s Gavin Friend says the damage is largely confined to the tech sector but there is evidence that it could be broadening to a fuller risk-off mood. The reasons for the uncertainty are clear, beyond irrational exuberance, we have increasing rhetoric from Donald Trump over China, expanding on his earlier decoupling comments; Boris Johnson is turning up the heat on Brexit negotiations, threatening to change the withdrawal agreement, even if it means breaching international law; and COVID-19 cases continue to rise. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 8th September 2020A drop in the pound was the only significant market move today, driven by threats from Boris Johnson to walk away in mid-October if he doesn’t get the Brexit deal he wants. Normally such remarks are taken as brinkmanship as negotiations near the finish line, but today there was a market reaction – perhaps because there’s little else to go on. Data from Australia today will give a clear indication of the impact of the Melbourne lockdown on other states – the NAB Business Survey for August and the weekly payrolls numbers. NAB’s Tapas Strickland also talks through a Bloomberg survey showing the expectation for further rate cuts and increased bond buying from the RBA. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 7th September 2020US jobs data on Friday helped the equities market to regain a little composure as it fell for the second day. It also saw Treasury yields rise sharply, steepening the curve. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril proffers his opinion on how much of this is a short-term response and how much the start of a longer-term shift. The Fed’s Jerome Powell said on Friday that the recovery ”will get harder from here”. There’s also the discussion on the impact on the Australian economy of the extension to the Melbourne lock-down announced yesterday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 4th September 2020There have been massive falls in US equities, particularly tech stocks. NAB’s David de Garis says thin trading in summer can always create sharper moves, but there’s little doubt a correction was overdue and tech stocks have borne the brunt of it. There’s been no encouraging news to divert attention – the Services ISM number came in lower than expected, with the employment component still in contraction. The weekly jobless claims numbers remain persistently high, with non-farm payrolls providing more detail tonight. And the Fed’s Charles Evans has suggested it’ll take more than two years to see a full recovery. The biggest victim of this negative mood – other than retail investors feeling the equity hit – is the Australian dollar. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 3rd September 2020The US dollar managed a slight recovery in the overnight session, which has also seen continued growth in US equities, echoed across the Atlantic. On today’s podcast Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill why the positive sentiment when the data we’re seeing isn’t so positive? ADP employment numbers were softer than expected and the Fed’s Beige Book suggested the recovery in the US is slowing. They also discuss yesterday’s GDP numbers for Australia and the whole gamut of services PMI numbers out later today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 2nd September 2020Deflation in Europe comes as no surprise, just as the shift in the Fed’s monetary policy seems likeold news, but NAB’s Gavin Friend explains how the markets are still adjusting to it. Data releases have largely been positive, with a higher than expected increase in the USA ISM, and the Caixin PMI for China is at its highest level since 2011. So, what can we expect from Australia’s GDP numbers for Q2? Will they signal that the RBA, and the government, needs to do more to help the economy recover? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 1st September 2020The Australian and NZ dollars reached two-year highs in the overnight session, with the US dollar declining further. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril whether the trend will continue, wand whether we could see the Aussie reach 80 US cents late next year. There’s also discussion on Warren Buffet’s investments in Japan, Richard Clarida’s explanation on the Fed’s policy change and how the rate of US COVID-19 fatalities seems to be reacting sluggishly to the fall in cases. Plus, what to expect from the RBA today and the US ISM manufacturing number tomorrow morning. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 31st August 2020NAB’s Ray Attrill says the US dollar bore the brunt of Friday’s reflective thinking on Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. He says, if the market believes the Fed will run inflation up to 3%, then real US interest rates would be lower and higher inflation should force the currency down over time, hence the response. But isn’t this somewhat hypothetical when inflation has struggled to get anywhere near 3 percent? There’s also discussion about US confidence data, China’s ISM numbers today and the impact of Shinzo Abe’s resignation announcement. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 28th August 2020Jerome Powell used his virtual address to the Jackson Hole Symposium to announcer the Fed’s strategy of targeting an ‘average’ 2% inflation rate, a subtle change that is likely to keep interest rates lower for longer. NAB’s David de Garis says that lower rates will help to propel investment once confidence returns, but it’ll take a while to eat into the current spare capacity. Meanwhile another million people signed for unemployment benefit in the US, business confidence seems to be picking up in Europe and the ABS provided confirmation that private capex in Australia was way down in Q2. Of course, the Q3 numbers will be a lot more interesting. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 27th August 2020There’s continued optimism in the markets, with equities reaching new highs again, helped on by better than expected durable goods orders in the US, and despite rising US-China tensions and the potential impact of Hurricane Laura. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril also discusses the continued interest in Australian bonds and the impact on GDP of yesterday’s construction numbers and today’s private capex read. Plus, what will be said at the virtual Jackson Hole, which kicks off today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 26th August 2020The US dollar is down again this morning, with equities up and touching new highs again. More significantly, we’ve seen sizeable increase in government bond yields in the US and Europe. NASB’s David de Garis talks through the factors at play, including hope that the US China trade relationship will continue as planned in the phase one deal, and concerns that a bigger supply of bonds in the pipeline could be inflationary. Meanwhile the IFO numbers from Germany gave ground for some optimism, despite rising COVID-19 cases in the country. Yet consumer confidence in the US has fallen, even as home sales increase 13%, to levels not seen since the subprime crisis. Good news or bad? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 25th August 2020US equities reached new highs again, with big gains also in Europe. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says investors are back to reacting to the vaccine hopes, with President Trump announcing he will fast track roll-outs in the US – faster than a ‘traditional’ administration. Meanwhile, NZ’s retail numbers yesterday fell significantly during Q2 as expected – so will they pay the price for a protracted lockdown? And will German IFO numbers today confirm that the European economy is recovering at a slower rate than the US? Plus, Australia’s payroll data today will show the early impacts of the Victorian lockdown. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 24th August 2020Europe’s PMI’s disappointed markets on Friday, whereas the US numbers were better than expected, helping to lift equities to new highs (again). The UK provided mixed news, with string PMIs offset by a week of Brexit negotiations that led nowhere. Donald Trump is pushing out all the stops on a virus and cure for COVID-19, with announcements expected today on one, if not both. NAB’s Ray Attrill talks through all of this, and reports that the take-out from the National Cabinet Meeting on Friday was that States and Territories should do more to fund Australia’s recovery. In the week ahead, the meeting of central bankers at Jackson Hole should provide a steady stream of news and views. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 21st August 2020US equities continue to rise, even though the jobless claims numbers rose last week. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Gavin Friend, at what point will they appear to be overvalued? There’s also discussion on bond movements, the continued fall in the Kiwi dollar, even against a weaker US dollar today, and the rise in the pound. There’s lots of PMIs released today – services and manufacturing for the UK, Germany, the Eurozone and the US – what will they tell us about the shape of the global recovery? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 20th August 2020There’s no doubt about it, there was disappointment from investors after the minutes of the recent FOMC meeting were released. There was hope that there would be some indication of how the committee would be arriving at a forward guidance for Fed strategy, but nothing. As NAB’s David de Garis says, Jerome Powell had suggested that their strategic review – that was interrupted by the COVID-19 outbreak - was well advanced and details would be released soon. Clearly not this soon, and equities fell back a little on the lack of new news. There’s a clearer picture on the direction of the RBNZ, with an expectation that interest rates will be in negative territory next year. There’s discussion of that on today’s podcast, plus the China-Australia fracas and US unemployment and stimulus (or lack of). Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 19th August 2020US stocks continue to rise to record highs, helped today by strong housing starts and building permits. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland whether there’s too much optimism about the rate of recovery and that’s showing in overvalued assets, including stocks and gold. Maybe the FOMC minutes will bring us down to earth tomorrow morning, although the news that Nancy Pelosi has indicated she’ll agree to go halfway on a fiscal stimulus deal might add to market enthusiasm. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 18th August 2020The US dollar continues to fall, pushing the Aussie dollar higher this morning. The dovish tone set by the RBNZ – plus a delayed election – means the NZ dollar hasn’t seen the same level of growth. In fact, NAB’s Ray Attrill points out in today’s Morning Call, the Aussie-NZ dollar cross is at a two year high. That’s not all, US equities are hitting new levels too, even though the idea of any sort of fiscal deal seems to have fallen off the table and growth slowed markedly in the latest NY Empire Manufacturing Index. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 17th August 2020Lockdowns have been extended in Victoria and Auckland, even as COVID-19 cases ease. But, NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, says hotspots around the world are becoming a bigger concern, hence the continued uncertainty in markets – although equities continue to perform close to record highs. With so much focus on the virus it’s not surprising that US China trade talks have been called off for the foreseeable future, with little market impact on the news. More interesting, perhaps, will be the Democrat Convention that kicks off today. What impact will their policies have? Can anything stop the slide in the US dollar right now? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 14th August 2020Jobs data is confusing right now. How much is it influenced by government stimulus activity? Well, not much in the US right now because an agreement still hasn’t been reached, but weekly new claims are below a million for the first time since March. In Australia unemployment has risen to 7.5%, before the Melbourne lockdown. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks through the data, and the market reaction, with equities still high and the bond sell-off continuing even as the US Treasury auctions off a heap more of them. And will Auckland stay in lockdown? Also today, a slew of performance data from China and US retail sales. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.