Geopolitical Futures Podcast

2018 is coming to an end, so there’s no better time to think about the future. Every year, GPF produces an Annual Forecast that lays out the trends that will shape the international system, and 2019 no different. The report, which publishes next week, will showcase predictions on the global economy, power politics in unlikely places, European disunion, developments in the Middle East and much more. In this week’s podcast, hosts Jacob and Cole will give you a sneak peek of what’s to come. Sign up for free updates on topics like this! Go here: https://goo.gl/zt6tzx

Geopolitics is slow and largely predictable, but anyone who claims to have all the answers for an international system as strange and as volatile as ours isn’t paying enough attention. Some countries are just plain difficult to understand, whatever the reason. For some, it’s a lack of data. For others, it’s unrealized potential. For others still, it’s overachievement. With our annual forecast on the horizon, this is the time of year when we revisit our assumptions about what makes the world go ‘round, especially the countries that are now the basis of political organization. So now is the perfect opportunity for Allison, Phil, Jacob and Cole to discuss the countries they can’t quite pin down.   Sign up for free updates on topics like this! Go here: https://goo.gl/zt6tzx

Description: GPF Director of Analysis Jacob Shapiro welcomes Dr. Andrey Sushentsov, founder and head of Eurasian Strategies, to the show to discuss US-Russia relations and what Americans and Russians don't understand about each other. Sign up for free updates on topics like this! Go here: https://goo.gl/zt6tzx

GPF Chairman George Friedman joins Director of Analysis Jacob Shapiro to give thoughts on issues ranging from new alliances in the Middle East to US-China relations. Also: how bad is the societal divide in the United States? Sign up for free updates on topics like this! Go here: https://goo.gl/zt6tzx

The heat is on Iran. Its economy is faltering. The currency is falling. The people are protesting. The government is threatening to close down the Strait of Hormuz. Renewed U.S. sanctions didn’t directly cause all these problems, of course, but they sure didn’t help. And they wouldn’t be an issue had U.S. stayed party to the Iran nuclear agreement. Is this the end of the reconciliation, or just a minor setback? If the deal is forever dead, will Iran now go nuclear? Would doing so achieve its regional objectives? Does deterrence strategy still hold? In this episode, recorded not-live but in-person, Jacob, Cole, Phil and special guest Ryan answer these questions and probably a lot of others you never thought to ask. And they do it without the comfort of an air conditioner. Sign up for free updates on topics like this! Go here: https://goo.gl/zt6tzx

The U.S. and Turkey have a lot of big mutual problems (Iran, the Islamic State, Bashar Assad) yet seem to be preoccupied by much smaller ones (pastors and alleged deep state operatives). To help explain why this is so, this week’s episode checks in on the status of U.S.-Turkey relations. Also, what’s with the stories about Rex Tillerson preventing a Saudi invasion of Qatar? Sign up for free updates on topics like this! Go here: https://goo.gl/zt6tzx

Is populism an ideology? Is it a political tool? A political weapon? The term has been bastardized over the years, so much so that it is nearly devoid of any meaning, and yet it is invoked nearly every day, levied against politicians of every political persuasion in every region of the world. In this week’s episode, the team digs into what it means to be populist and applies it to Mexico’s newly elected president. Sign up for free updates on topics like this! Go here: https://goo.gl/zt6tzx

This week, the head of NATO wrote a column politely reminding everyone about the use of the military alliance. Can NATO continue to meet the needs of all its members? Sign up for free updates on topics like this! Go here: https://goo.gl/zt6tzx

GPF Director Jacob Shapiro welcomes special guest Dario Fabbri, Senior Analyst at Limes, to talk about Italy's view of Europe. Along the way, they touch on Italy's relationship with the U.S., Germany's lack of strategy and France's double-edged demographic advantage. Intro music: Antonio Vivaldi, Concerto No. 1 In E major, performed by John Harrison (violin) with Robert Turizziani conducting the Wichita State University Chamber Players. Sign up for free updates on topics like this! Go here: https://goo.gl/zt6tzx

The unprecedented meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un raises an important question: So what? Sign up for free updates on topics like this! Go here: https://goo.gl/zt6tzx

This week, Jacob and Cole stitch together a few separate recordings that were made throughout the week. We have George Friedman with a special guest on war games, Phillip Orchard on Malaysia’s political drama, and Xander Snyder on the so-called Libya model. Also, basketball. Music credit for this week's podcast: Paul Cantrell playing Frédéric Chopin's Prelude Op. 28, No. 4, and "Off to The Shaman For Ancient Medicines" by The Koreatown.  Sign up for free updates on topics like this! Go here: https://goo.gl/zt6tzx

In this bonus episode, GPF Chairman George Friedman sits down for a short conversation with Limes magazine director Lucio Caracciolo in Genoa, Italy. George and Lucio discuss Italy's perspective on U.S. foreign policy in Europe, Germany's true nature, and the future of the European Union. Exit music is a recording of Italian baroque composer Arcangelo Corelli's Concerto grosso, Op. 6, No. 4, graciously provided by the Advent Chamber Orchestra. Sign up for free updates on topics like this! Go here: https://goo.gl/zt6tzx

After two weeks off, it’s time to catch up on the world’s events – perfect timing, considering this week may prove to be such a geopolitically consequential one. Jacob and Cole discuss Putin’s continued tenure in Russia, Israel’s combat readiness, Xi’s Marxist beliefs, the Iran deal and more. Sign up for free updates on topics like this! Go here: https://goo.gl/zt6tzx

Russia and the United States have been convenient strawmen for each other for some time. It makes sense for two powerful countries to be a little adversarial, but are they in the throes of another Cold War? The answer to that question requires a top-to-bottom understanding of Russia. Jacob Shapiro and Cole Altom explain why. Sign up for free updates on topics like this! Go here: https://goo.gl/zt6tzx

Domestic politics always play a role in international affairs. But do they do so now more than other times? After previewing the week ahead, Jacob Shapiro and Cole Altom take discuss how Iran's potential instability shapes its behavior abroad. Sign up for free updates on topics like this! Go here: https://goo.gl/GbC7yB

GPF Podcast returns after a week off to address what promises to be a busy few days ahead. Plus, Jacob Shapiro and Cole Altom pore over GPF's new special reports on The Geopolitics of London and The Geopolitics of Dune. Sign up for free updates on topics like this! Go here: https://goo.gl/zt6tzx

With so much drama in the Middle East, it’s nearly irresponsible to focus on just one actor – emphasis on nearly. At GPF, we’ve long maintained that Turkey was a country on the rise, and the things we see it doing today are exactly the things a country on the rise would do. Time will tell if it will reach its full potential, so in the meantime, Jacob Shapiro, Xander Snyder and Cole Altom take a step back and reflect on how it’s faring right now. Sign up for free updates on topics like this! Go here: https://goo.gl/zt6tzx

The United States has always had a peculiar relationship with just about every country in the Western Hemisphere that isn’t Canada. The reasons for this go back as far as the Monroe Doctrine, of course, but the Cold War – and the associated coups and insurgencies etc. – left an indelible mark on the ways these countries interact with one another. After Jacob Shapiro and Cole Altom take a look at the week ahead, Allison Fedirka stops by to discuss why this is the case. Sign up for free updates on topics like this! Go here: https://goo.gl/zt6tzx

China, Japan and the Korean Peninsula tend to overshadow Southeast Asia, a geographically confounding region that was, until very recently, also home to our very own Phillip Orchard. Now that he’s back, he, Jacob Shapiro and Cole Altom will discuss this oft-overlooked area. But first, they address the elephant in the room: the meeting in May between Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump. Sign up for free updates on topics like this! Go here: https://goo.gl/zt6tzx

Now that Germany has finally formed a new government, the de facto leader of the EU can get back to being the de facto leader of the EU. But Italy has just elected into power parties that are less-than-friendly to Germany's agenda. Jacob Shapiro and Cole Altom discuss how this peculiar era of nationalism is just one chapter in a much longer story about Europe.Sign up for free updates on topics like this! Go here: https://goo.gl/zt6tzx