Trend Following With Michael Covel

Michael Covel speaks to the timelessness of being a contrarian. He starts off sharing a recent email received. The email suggested Michael tone down the trend following talk and work with people to help find their calling in life. This email dovetails into an excerpt Michael plays of high school football coach, Kevin Kelley.Coach Kelley is a contrarian thinking football coach. He is known for never punting and onside kicks after every touchdown. Coach Kelley ran the numbers and figured out the probability of winning with punting as opposed to going for it. He has had tremendous success from doing things differently and creating his own answers on the field.Next Michael reads an article from Andy Staples, “The power of not punting: Why a college coach should adopt Kevin Kelley’s unconventional philosophy.” Andy Staples, a writer for Sports Illustrated, was curious about Coach Kelly and his unconventional coaching, so he visited one of Coach Kelley’s games. During that game, Coach Kelley had to give in and punt

Today on Trend Following Radio Michael Covel interviews Michael Ellsberg. Michael is an American author, blogger and public speaker. Michael Covel and Michael Ellsberg met for the first time in Napa Valley at a Tim Ferris conference. Today they talk about Michael’s newest work, “The Last Safe Investment: Spending Now to Increase Your True Wealth Forever.” The book is about making money, being an entrepreneur, and giving insights that can applied today.The two start off talking about entrepreneurism and dive deep into how people think about money. Michael, and his co-author Bryan Franklin, wanted to completely rewrite the script for how people think about making and spending money. Michael says the bottom line is to try and make your life as awesome as possible in every aspect. Most people want money for one reason or another. He has found that the three most popular reasons people want money is: happiness, freedom, and security. Michael always wanted to be a writer growing up. He used his savings to help pay

Today on Trend Following Radio Michael Covel speaks with Vineer Bhansali. It is Vineer’s second appearance on the show. He brings a world of experience to the subjects of behavioral finance and tail investing strategies. He believes strongly that sustained portfolio performance comes from expecting the unexpected and hedging both left and right sides of tail risks. Vineer’s firm, Long Tail Alpha, is based on exploiting values from the tails of the probability distribution and also exploiting how human behavior distorts the markets.Michael starts the podcast off breaking apart Vineer’s white paper, “A Behavioral Perspective on Tail Risk Hedging.” Vineer says the way markets actually trade have very little to do with the idealized models that have been presented in the academic community. Those models are presented because they are easy to solve. All interesting things that go on in the markets are beyond the idealized scenarios. Vineer talks Michael through the idea of the “Three Investors.” His study is based

Today on Trend Following Radio Michael Covel interviews Philip Tetlock. Phil is a Canadian American political science writer currently at The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. He is right at the intersection of psychology, political science and organizational behavior. His book, “Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction,” is about probabilistic thinking defined. Phil is also a co-principle investigator of The Good Judgment Project, a study on the art and science of prediction and forecasting.Michael starts off asking, “Regular folks can beat the experts at their own game?” Phil says essentially that is correct. He started The Good Judgment Project in 2011. It was based around forecasting and was funded by the government. He was shocked by the amount of “regular” people he recruited for his study that were able to compete with, or do a better job predicting than professionals working for agencies such as the NSA.Michael and Phil move onto discussing the Iraq war. They discuss what th

Today on Trend Following Radio Michael Covel profiles Jeremy Siegel. Jeremy describes himself as “The Wizard of Wharton.” His website claims that he is credited with contributing and expanding the great bull market of the last two decades. Jeremy is also bestselling author of “Stocks for the Long Run.”Michael moves right into playing a few clips from appearances Jeremy has made on CNBC. The first clip has Jeremy outlining his predictions in early November 2015: The Dow will surpass 20,000, oil can’t go much lower, and the dollar can’t go much higher. His predictions are perfect examples of predictions without any substance. They have no timelines, or data to backup why he feels the way he does.Excerpt #2 was filmed around December 13th. The Dow at that time was at 17,300. The S&P was at 2020. Jeremy moves right into more predictions and generalizations. He doesn’t say “buy at this time” and “sell at this time.” Jeremy proceeds to use words like “tremor” and “relief rally.” It is hard to have wrong predict

Today on Trend Following Radio Michael Covel interviews Angus Deaton. Angus is a British American economist. In 2015 he was awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize for his work in economic sciences on his analysis on consumption, poverty and welfare. Those topics go into one of the most hotly discussed issues in America right now, inequality. He brings some great data driven insights and angles to the discussion.Michael starts the podcast off discussing the benefits of winning a Nobel Prize and how it opens up debate and reshapes topics. Angus agrees that the Nobel Prize does get conversations going and as an academic, it allows him able to reach a broader audience. Michael and Angus move right into discussing inequality. Angus says that in periods where there has been the most innovation, this is typically when there is the most inequality. Angus also quotes a famed economist saying, “Data is like meatballs. I won’t eat them when I’m out because I don’t know what is in them and I won’t eat them when I’m home becaus

Today on Trend Following Radio Michael Covel starts off giving listeners perspective on the feedback he receives. Over the years Michael has received thousands of emails that have created insightful and thought provoking give and take discussions. He reads an email that came in recently on a fairly controversial topic. The listener talked about his disagreement with Yaron Brook in episode 183. He disagreed on the shared viewpoint between Yaron and Michael. The listener’s email also touches on unemployment, minimum wage, and government regulations. The email was extensive and Michael gives his feedback as he makes his way through reading it.Michael furthers the discussion by moving into reading from an article titled, “The Case Against the Minimum Wage” by Daniel Bier. Daniel says that there is much we may not agree on, but when there are topics that economic professionals do agree on, we should take notice. Economists across the board agree that by raising the minimum wage we will actually increase unemployme

Today on Trend Following Radio Michael Covel speaks with Steve Kamb. Steve is the author of “Level Up Your Life: How to Unlock Adventure and Happiness by Becoming the Hero of Your Own Story” and has built a career in the niche of Nerd Fitness. He gives great insight on how to reach a specific audience and gain a loyal following. He knew he was horribly mismatched in his career and had to make a drastic change. Not wasting much time, Steve moved to Atlanta and took a job making half the money and loved it. It was at this job where he started getting into fitness and creating a website to help others. His company, Nerd Fitness, soon turned into a full time job.Michael starts the podcast asking, “What is your definition of a nerd?” Steve quotes Wil Wheaton, “A nerd is not what you love but how you love it.” He elaborates saying that you could be a comic book nerd, medical school nerd, Star Wars nerd, etc. Steve’s outlook on fitness is about keeping a healthy lifestyle while keeping your other passions alive. It

Today on Trend Following Radio Michael Covel discusses three topics: the idea of two Americas, crowds, and his recent Barry Ritholtz interview. Michael starts off reading from an article titled “Two Americas.” The article focuses on people who contribute, and those who do not. People who work and those who do not. The article disagrees with the notion that all incomes should be equal. Different choices lead to different consequences. Those who choose wisely have a greater degree of success and should not have their success taken from them because others chose unwisely. The article goes on to say, “Entitlement has replaced effort in American society.” Just because you went to college doesn’t mean you are entitled to a certain level of income. On the other hand, those that do not have an education or work hard to make something happen are also not entitled to a certain level of income. Achievers do not want a pat on the head or a fake handout. Free money doesn’t work. You need passionate effort for there to be

Today on Trend Following Radio Michael Covel interviews Mebane Faber. Mebane is a noted author, blogger, and portfolio manager with Cambria Investment Management. His new book, “Invest with the House: Hacking the Top Hedge Funds” is out now. This is Mebane’s 4th appearance on Trend Following Radio. Michael and Mebane have a slightly different outlook on trading but they do align. The biggest similarity is that they both come at the markets from a quant way of thinking.Michael starts the podcast off asking, “Why do some of the big name guys motivate you so much.” Mebane says he always loved investing. In his spare time during college he would explore finance. A fund manager named John Griffin, who was Julian Robertson’s right hand man, taught at Mebane’s school UVA. It was in this class that many famed hedge fund managers provided his first initiation. The managers would give examples of different kinds of research they would do. Mebane knew he would never have the resources to do that type of research, so he

Today on Trend Following Radio Michael Covel starts off quoting famed trader Stanley Druckenmiller. Stanley shares his views on betting big and diversification. Michael expands on Stanley’s views by stressing how crucial diversification is to a portfolio’s success. You must be open to many markets to handle your risk management. And when markets start to go your way, you have to “bet the ranch.” When one market in your portfolio takes off you need to go big and make the most of it. This is where your profits will come from. Note: Stanley Druckenmiller had two big mentors in his life. One of the two influences was George Soros. The two have been business partners for years now and have made a fortune trading trends. These men do not tout themselves as trend following traders but Michael describes them as “kissing cousins” to trend following.Michael then reads an article from Josh Brown titled, “Everyone is a closet technician.” In the article, Josh claims everyone is a technician. What is a technician? Josh de

Today on Trend Following Radio Michael Covel interviews Robert Carver. Robert is author of “Systematic Trading: A unique new method for designing trading and investing systems.” He got his start in finance working at AHL. Robert started with AHL in 2001 during his final year of college. It was at this time that he was introduced to quantitative trading and began thinking of finance in a systematic way. He later went back to AHL, working there from 2006-2013.Robert doesn’t tout systematic trading as the only way to trade. He says there are some great traders out there that aren’t systematic traders. However, the majority of people need a system to be successful. So how does Robert define a system? He says a system must be objective, repeatable, and transferable. If you can’t get the same results using a different person then it is not a true system. The rules must be transferable from one person to another and the results must be objective and repeatable. Most do not have a good understanding of statistics, an

Today on Trend Following Radio Michael Covel talks prediction. He opens with an excerpt from Seth Godin on how he thinks 2016 will unfold. His predictions are based on events that have always happened and will always happen, poking fun at the idea of having a “crystal ball look” into the future.Michael moves on to market timing and reads an excerpt from The Institutional Investor titled, “Market Timing is Back in the Hunt for Investors.” The article states that market timing can be done correctly if you use a combination of trend following and contrarian views. Michael disagrees with the article stating that you need diversification. You can’t pick one stock and try and predict the top or bottom. Making that kind of bet on one market will bankrupt you. You need a portfolio of diverse markets so your winners can pay for your losses.Michael then plays three clips from Daniel Kahneman on overconfidence, playing odds, and why we make the choices we do when spending money. Most of what we read in the paper is abou

Today on Trend Following Radio Michael Covel interviews Peter Gray. Peter is an American psychologist who currently occupies the position of research professor of psychology at Boston College. He is also a well known critic of standard learning systems, and calls himself an evolutionary developmental psychologist. He studies why children are the way they are by asking questions like: Why are children so playful? Why are they so willful? Why do children do what they do?Peter starts the podcast off saying, “There is an issue with the resilience of young people today.” Since the 1950’s there has been an increase of psychological problems among youth. Counselors are being flooded with trivial issues that in earlier years students would have taken care of themselves. Roommate issues, bad grades, breakups, etc. are a few examples of issues students are now deciding they need to see psychotherapists for. It’s not that people are biologically different than previous generations, it’s that our world has become radical

Today on Trend Following Radio Michael Covel starts off talking about goal setting for 2016. He reads a 100 day fitness regimen for 2016. The challenge clearly lays out what is expected, and has concrete rules in place. In contrast, he plays a clip form CNBC with a headline that reads, “Stocks to buy and hold for 50 Years.” Michael tears their predictions apart. He says betting on others “current flavor of the day” stock picks are not how you want to plan your next 50 years.“Top Stock Picks from 2016” is the next article Michael reads from. “Pro Michael Farr shares his best bets for the market next year including oil stocks, healthcare and consumer staples.” Farr starts off by giving an overwhelming amount of fundamental data to back up his stock picks. In the middle of giving his fundamental data however, he acknowledges that he does not have a crystal ball (and is guessing). He then goes on to guess oil prices will be higher rather than lower three years from now. Michael uses his statement as an example of

Today on Trend Following Radio Michael Covel interviews Ron Friedman. Ron is an award winning social psychologist that specializes in human motivation. He is author of “The Best Place to Work: The Art and Science of Creating an Extraordinary Work Place.” His book consists of over 1,000 academic studies that have been boiled down.Michael and Ron start talking about factors that contribute to employee dissatisfaction. Ron says there are three main needs that we, as humans, need fulfilled: Competence, relatedness, and autonomy. There is clear evidence showing that when you have happy workers, you have a much more productive company. Free snacks and coffee, for example, make workers feel more at ease and productive in their workplace. Michael then asks, “How do you define a ‘workplace’.” Ron says that work use to be just confined to an office. Now a workplace could be anywhere you have a cellphone connection. Michael then asks, “How do you create success in the workplace?” Giving employees the opportunity to fail

Today on Trend Following Radio Michael Covel begins with a clip from the creator of the psychological concept of flow, Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi. The first question Mihaly asks is, “What is the meaning of happiness? If each one of us is responsible and in control of our happiness, then how do you obtain happiness?” People feel the most happy when they are able to express who they really are. When people express their strengths, they are able to say, “Yes, this is who I am.” It makes life suddenly matter and creates happiness. Mihaly came up with the term “flow” from people he would interview and study. When they would describe being truly happy, they would describe the feeling as being carried by a current and floating along.Mihaly brings up a personal experience from fighting in WWII. He said when people lost their property and personal belongings, most would crumble. This is when he became interested in the differences between people who were able to be strong internally as opposed to those who needed to lean

Today on Trend Following Radio Michael Covel interviews Dr. Jason Williams. Jason is author of “The Mental Edge in Trading.” While going to medical school Jason fell in love with the brain and psychiatry. He was fascinated with figuring out all the different ways the brain worked. While finishing his psychiatry degree at John Hopkins he started working on a research project giving psychology tests to traders. The goal was to see if they could find any common themes among traders and how they think during trading. There are many similarities and he has built up a side business helping traders get in touch with their mental game.Jason uses a test called the NEO PI-R. He explains the differences between the NEO PI-R and other personality tests such as Myers Briggs. He says that if you take Myers Briggs, and take it again a week later, the results are different 50% of the time. Myers Briggs gives extreme generalizations. It simply says if you are an extrovert or introvert and doesn’t go much deeper. Jason brings

On today’s episode of Trend Following Radio Michael starts off discussing his travel. One of his stops in early December was New York City to meet up with a few legends, one of them being Larry Hite. He talks a bit about their lunch conversation and how Larry has climbed the ladder of success. Larry paints the picture that he was just an average Joe from Brooklyn, and his success is fully obtainable if the right desire and drive is there.Today's subject on Trend Following Radio goes along the lines of the rest of his conversation with Larry Hite. It’s all about the data. Michael makes it clear that his career would not exist if he did not have the opportunity to dig into the trend following data. You see all types of trend following traders up in the same months and down in the same months–that means something. Doesn’t matter why it happened, just that it happened. Further, many make the mistake of not caring about the psychological. You can have the best system under the sun, but if you don’t have the psycho

Today on Trend Following Radio Michael Covel interviews Thomas Sterner, author of “The Practicing Mind.” Tom was in the same career for over 30 years when he decided to make a switch. He self published the first edition of “The Practicing Mind,” and as it snowballed into a phenomenon, publishers started knocking at his door for wider distribution.This is about practicing focus and learning to calm your mind. Not an easy task in today’s world with media constantly telling us we are incomplete in what we are doing. People incessantly crave closure, but closure is not always the answer. Tom says that immersing yourself in something that is ongoing puts you in a place of “being.” People are always trying to complete the next level, but being in a state of constant expansion is the best state to be in. He says that even the process of writing books does not have a beginning and an end. He looks at it as an ongoing process. When one book ends, then you can move on from saying what you needed to say and move onto th