Trend Following With Michael Covel

“If you are in a dead end existence and feel like you need something else, get on a plane.” Fly to a foreign country, go alone, and do not have a plan. The influx of adrenaline from getting away and exploring can break anyone out of their day to day hypnosis. Michael plays a series of news clips starting from the beginning of the Presidential race. The various clips start off profiling Donald Trump’s campaign as a joke, and then slowly morphing into him inching his way up in the polls and taking the Presidency. Michael then reads an excerpt from “Follow Me and Die” by Cecil Curry. Michael ends the podcast with a quote from a recent Financial Times article featuring David Harding. The excerpt explains how Harding exploits the failures in the efficient market theory. He says that the markets are a psychological game and should not based off of fundamentals. Bet your money on the price, not what is happening in politics. In this episode of Trend Following Radio: Trump as President-elect Trading off of price,

Olympic gold medalist Lanny Bassham is on today’s podcast. After falling short in the 1972 Olympics winning the silver medal rather than gold, Lanny went home and re-applied himself. He returned to the 1976 Olympics and won the gold medal in rifle shooting. Lanny was the kid in school that nobody wanted on their team. He was slow, short and uncoordinated. He worked hard, but he was never going to be able to compete against others that were taller, faster and more coordinated. He shares a story about being in school and one of his classmates saying that he would be the least likely person to become an Olympic gold medalist. This prompted him to go home and learn all he could about the Olympics. This began his journey in finding his place in Olympic history. Lanny moves on to share how much practice and work he had to put in to become an elite performer. He never felt like practice was something he had to do, it was something he got to do. He loved rifle shooting not just because of the action of it, but beca

Michael brings football into the podcast today. He starts off playing a press conference clip with Tony Romo and his response to being injured and falling from his spot as the starting quarterback. Michael moves on to Donald Trump and what government should be. There are pro’s and con’s to Trump becoming President, but the bottom line is that people voted against the current political system. 50% of Americans decided to roll the dice and see what happens. Big picture: Your trading strategy must not be based on who the President might be. Just follow the trend. In this episode of Trend Following Radio: Meritocracy Donald Trump as President Trading off the trend, not fundamentals

Michael welcomes Daniel Crosby, author of “The Laws of Wealth: Psychology and the Secret to Investing Success.” His background is in behavioral psychology and he sees the markets as a great backdrop to view human behavior in a real world setting. Michael and Daniel start breaking apart the efficient market theory into two concepts: 1. You can’t beat the market, and 2. The price that you see is always right. They discuss debate in the academic world between the efficient market camp and the behavioral finance camp. Daniel says that the 2008 crash shows where the efficient market theory starts to break down. He moves into value and momentum trading. Daniel brings in research proving that rules based approaches is 94% more successful than expert personal discretion. “Let your profits run and cut your losers short” is perhaps the biggest rule in trend following which takes great psychological discipline. Daniel says that it is an easy concept to grasp, but so hard to follow. Any investment discipline rooted in

On today’s episode of Trend Following Radio Michael Covel interviews Jim Rickards. Jim was front and center during the 1998 LTCM blow-up. He was a partner and general counsel for Long Term Capital Management. Following their blowup, he was principal negotiator in the 1998 bailout of LTCM by the Federal Reserve. He has had a bird’s eye view of some of the most interesting events in the economy over the last 20 years. In Jim’s latest book, “The Road to Ruin: The Global Elites’ Secret Plan for the Next Financial Crisis,” he talks about 1998, 2008 and 2018. Jim gives these dates as examples of financial crises that happen (and will happen) every six to ten years. He relates financial panics to earthquakes. If you could stop an earthquake mid earthquake, this is similar to how we have been dealing with financial crises over the years. When bubbles are created, and then bailouts occur, government is only putting a stopper in the problem, however the problem is still there and building. The next bailout can’t come

John Miller, author of “QBQ: The Question behind the Question”, is on today’s podcast. John’s message is all about person responsibility. His dad was the wrestling coach at Cornell University and he taught John the foundation for his way of thinking early on. What could I have done different? How could I have done a better job? These are just a couple questions John tells people to ask themselves before they try and pass blame onto someone else. John shares a personal story of someone going above and beyond in their service. This story is referred to as “The coke story.” He shares it with every audience he speaks in front of because it is the perfect example of someone going above and beyond. John says that people need to rise above situations, swallow pride, and fix problems even if it wasn’t their mistake to fix. Next, John shares what he did before writing books and doing speaking engagements. He was bored and depressed working behind a desk. Michael asks, “Even in a bored and depressed state, did you ev

Are markets efficient? Can you beat the market? Is the market the right price? These are questions Michael answers today. Michael brings in Benoit Mandelbrot to help explain the efficient market hypothesis and where we have all gone wrong in our thinking over the years. Next, he goes to Richard Feynman to explain the scientific method and how one goes about comparing and contrasting. Lastly, Michael lets Gerd Gigerenzer elaborate on the concept of heuristics. In this episode of Trend Following Radio: Efficient market hypothesis Scientific method What is a heuristic? The market price What if money was no object?

Roger Housden is an author, speaker, and writing guide. He writes for “living and writing wild.” He has authored 22 books and has been featured everywhere from the New York Times to the LA Times. His latest book is titled, “Dropping the Struggle.” Michael and Roger start the episode by breaking apart Roger’s book title, “Dropping the Struggle.” Roger looks at different areas of life where struggle doesn’t work such as the struggle for meaning or purpose of life, the struggle for love, and the struggle against change, just to name a few. Next, Roger expands on the idea of “the moment of now.” He says that the idea of “fate” does not mean that your life is predetermined. The love of ones fate, and embracing fate as your life is how you write your own story. Planning for the future has its place, but when it preoccupies current life completely, then it can be problematic. Next, Michael and Roger talk about the always occurring “end of the world” debate going on. They use the upcoming election as an example. On

My special 500th episode is a 6-hour aggregate show featuring Charles Faulkner.

Jenny Blake is author of “Pivot: The Only Move That Matters is Your Next One.” She is a former Google employee and has a perspective that everyone can learn something from, especially if you feel like you are at a plateau in life. Michael and Jenny start the conversation off with the benefits of yoga. Jenny says that “Your body is your business.” She quickly realized that when her body was operating at 50% then her business was operating at 50%. Yoga has always been her outlet and her source of strength, flexibility, and one of her biggest accelerators of focus. Michael asks, “How did we get to this point where everyone thinks that life goes in a straight line?” Jenny says we are all hungry for a sense of adventure, however we so often resist change. 2008 was a game changer that made many realize that anything can happen at any time. Social media has contributed to this also by creating a sense of restlessness and what Jenny refers to as “cognitive junk food”. Jenny talks about the word “plateau” next. Pla

Norton Reamer is the former Chief Investment Officer and CEO of Putnam Investments. He also founded and ran United Asset Management for 20 years. He has 50 years of experience on Wall Street. Today, Michael and Norton talk about his new book, “Investment: A History.” It is a detailed anthology on investment. Norton stresses that everyone has a responsibility to understand their investments and to educate themselves to know what they are getting themselves into. Most people seem daunted by the challenges of investing. Real ownership, seeking a value, the role of leverage, and resource allocation are four key points of investment that Norton lays out in his book. When someone makes an investment, they need to really own that investment. It isn’t just a piece of paper. Michael moves the conversation to economic bubbles and asks, “What are some of the timeless lessons that can be learned from bubbles you have witnessed in your lifetime?” Norton’s favorite bubble to have witnessed in his 80+ years is the latest

David Stockman is on the podcast today for his second appearance. He is a former United States congressman, who also served as the Director of The Office of Management and Budget under president Ronald Reagan. His books include, “The Great Deformation”, and “Trumped: A Nation on the Brink of Ruin… And How to Bring it Back”. Michael and David start off discussing the recent news of Larry Summers suggesting that the Fed should start buying common stocks. David says that this is an act of sheer desperation and that any economist, 20 years ago, would have never come up with such an idea. What has happened is that policy makers have been led into a dead end path. “Madness” is how David describes the Fed right now. The mentality people have today, with Janet Yellen, is that intervention is necessary and without it, the whole system will fall apart. This mentality was not present prior to the year 2000 or maybe even 2008. Wall Street and Washington applaud the policy only because the market continues to go up. Mic

Michael Covel interviews Milton Friedman. Of course, Friedman is dead. Such the conundrum. In this episode of Trend Following Radio: Free lunch myth Robin Hood myth Collectivism Case against equal pay for equal work

Michael talks with Ted Parkhill. Ted has over 25 years of management experience in the investment business. He is a founding partner of systematic macro investment manager Incline Investment Management (IIM). He is also serves as an Assistant Professor of business at Sierra Nevada College in Incline Village, NV. Prior to IIM he was the director of marketing for Zazove Associates a multi-billion dollar quantitative convertible securities manager. He was a senior marketing executive at John W. Henry & Company one of the original Commodity Trading Advisors. In this episode of Trend Following Radio: It is possible to consistently generate profitable returns through systematic trading Markets are inefficient and therefore trends materialize Trends last longer than people think Prices reflect the sum of the knowledge of all market participants

Today, Michael dives into the fight for liberty. No show notes. Listen or not, your choice.

Michael welcomes Adam Khoo to the podcast. Khoo is a Singaporean serial entrepreneur, author, trainer and a professional stock and FX trader. Khoo became a self-made millionaire at the age of 26, making him one of the youngest millionaires in Singapore. Khoo is the Executive chairman and Chief Master Trainer of Adam Khoo Learning Technologies Group, one of Asia’s largest private educational institutions, which runs educational seminars for over 80,000 people annually in 7 countries. From Neuro-linguistic programming to trend following, Adam and Michael cover the key topics. In this episode of Trend Following Radio: Neuro-linguistic programming Technical analysis Finding the edge Trend following Market Wizards

Michael provides a FREE chapter from his audio book versions of The Complete TurtleTrader and Trend Commandments. Mentions & Resources: The Complete TurtleTrader Trend Commandments

Brian Christian, co-author of “Algorithms to Live By: The Computer Science of Human Decisions,” is on today’s podcast. The book shows how common algorithms relate to our everyday lives. Brian starts off giving a historical explanation of an “algorithm”. Algorithms do not just relate to computers or mathematical procedures. A cooking recipe can be described as an algorithm or you could use an algorithm to solve the question, “How do you know when your best opportunity is?” Brian says you use an algorithm known as “optimal stopping” to solve this question. He explains the algorithm that provides the best probability of the best outcome. Probability is the next. Is it worth exploring a new business possibility? Or is it better to hone in your skills and continue on with what you are doing? There is a formal framework or algorithm to help make these decisions. Brian explains the “win stay, lose shift” approach. If a restaurant is good, go back. If you don’t have a good experience, don’t go back. It may not be t

Michael dives into Donald Trump and the Fed. Listen at your peril! Mentions & Resources: Donald Trump Janet Yellen The Fed

Chris Voss is the author of, “Never Split The Difference: Negotiating As If Your Life Depended On It.” Chris is a former international hostage negotiator for the FBI. He has had an amazing career full of great experience and insights. Chris first entered the FBI in 1983 and has been involved with over 150 kidnapping cases. He started out working on a suicide hotline and quickly realized that his negotiating skills were applicable to all areas of life, not just hostage situations. Chris starts the conversation off talking about how he begins hostage negotiations. It is about exchanging power and getting the upper hand early on in the negotiations. A lot of people want to think of negotiations as chess. Chris explains why this is not the case. You can make four moves in a row if you want. Not necessarily making one move, then a counter move by the other person. Chris goes on to explain that if you can walk out of any situation you don’t like, then you can win in any situation and you are able to have more fun