Exchanges At Goldman Sachs

The Fed has begun a long-awaited cutting cycle, potentially providing some relief to rate-sensitive sectors. Goldman Sachs’ Lotfi Karoui and Jeff Fine explain the impact of falling rates on US commercial real estate as well as the implications for housing. 

Sequoia Capital’s Roelof Botha, one of Silicon Valley’s most highly respected investors, discusses his career, Sequoia’s unique culture and investment processes, and how he finds and builds enduring businesses. 

After a stronger-than-expected start to the year, China’s economy is showing signs of weakening as the world’s second-largest economy struggles with a real estate downturn, slowing consumer spending, and geopolitical tensions. Goldman Sachs Research’s Hui Shan, chief China economist, shares her outlook for China’s growth.

Blackstone’s Global Head of Private Equity Joe Baratta shares his outlook for the private equity industry, the macro environment today, and his evolution as a leader.

Many view the recent rise in the unemployment rate as a concerning sign about the economic outlook, fueling recession fears. Could the US economy fall into recession, and will overly tight Federal Reserve policy be to blame? In the latest episode of Goldman Sachs Exchanges, Allison Nathan discusses these questions with three top economic minds: Claudia Sahm, the creator of the “Sahm rule” and Chief Economist at New Century Advisors, former Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Bill Dudley, and Goldman Sachs Vice Chairman and former Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Rob Kaplan. This episode explores the latest Top of Mind report, “Is the Fed behind the curve?”

Twenty-five years ago, Goldman Sachs research analyst Kathy Matsui wrote a report about the Japanese economy called Womenomics, stating that future potential economic growth will depend on increased female labor participation. So how much progress has been made in Japan and around the world? Sharon Bell, Senior Strategist on the European Portfolio Strategy Team within Goldman Sachs Research, and Asahi Pompey, Goldman Sachs Global Head of Corporate Engagement and President of the Goldman Sachs Foundation, discuss the gains — and gaps — in female workforce participation and the impact to economic growth.

The rapid unwinding of the Japanese yen carry trade is rippling through global markets. Goldman Sachs Research’s Kamakshya Trivedi, head of Global Foreign Exchange, Interest Rates, and Emerging Markets Strategy, and Praneet Shah, co-head of Global G10 FX Options Trading in Global Banking & Markets, explain the carry trade, why it matters, and the implications for investment portfolios.

Global markets sold off sharply amid rising US recession fears. Goldman Sachs Research’s Chief US Economist David Mericle explains why those concerns are likely overblown. 

“Tectonic shifts” are reshaping the private markets and spurring consolidation among alternative asset managers, explains TPG CEO Jon Winkelried on Goldman Sachs Exchanges: Great Investors. Winkelried, who also served as the former president and co-chief operating officer at Goldman Sachs, shares his perspectives on investment opportunities, leading teams, and managing companies through crises. For more insights from great investors, listen to previous episodes from our Great Investors series: KKR’s Henry Kravis on private equity, culture, and global markets. 

The US consumer has powered the global economy in recent years, but are signs of strain starting to form? Goldman Sachs Research’s Chief US Economist David Mericle, and Kate McShane and Bonnie Herzog, co-business unit leaders of US consumer, discuss the outlook for consumer spending and the US retail sector.  For more information, listen to our Goldman Sachs Exchanges episode, Are inflation fears overblown? The outlook for inflation, US growth, and long-term rates or read Is US consumer spending losing momentum?

Ares Management’s Co-founder, CEO, and President Mike Arougheti shares his outlook for the economy and private markets, his evolution as a leader, and the firm’s path to building its prowess in private credit. 

Tech giants and beyond are set to spend an estimated $1 trillion on AI capex in coming years. Will this investment pay off? And if it doesn’t, what does that mean for businesses and investors? MIT’s Daron Acemoglu and Goldman Sachs Research’s Jim Covello explain why reality may not match the hype on the latest episode of Goldman Exchanges, which explores the latest Top of Mind report, Gen AI: too much spend, too little benefit?

Rising incomes and slowing electric vehicles sales are slowing the world’s transition away from oil. Goldman Sachs Research’s Daan Struyven and Nikhil Bhandari discuss the supply-and-demand drivers shaping the oil market and what they mean for investors and consumers. For more insights read Peak oil demand is still a decade away, Which commodities are the best hedge for inflation?, and Why are EV sales slowing?  

Can US stocks sustain their rally from here? Goldman Sachs Research’s David Kostin, chief US equity strategist, shares his outlook for equities for the second half of the year and the risks that could derail that rally.  For more information, read Stocks may extend their rally — but there’s value in diversification or listen to the Goldman Sachs The Markets podcast, where Goldman Sachs experts analyze the key market events each week, in under 10 minutes. 

Long-time large-cap growth manager Kathleen McCarragher of Jennison Associates speaks with Goldman Sachs’ Betsy Gorton about investing through multiple economic cycles, her perspectives on AI and growth opportunities, and her advice on building and leading teams. To hear from more Great Investors, check out: Capital Group’s Rob Lovelace on long-term investing, succession planning, and leadership lessons; Dimensional’s Founder and Chairman David Booth on being an index pioneer, working with Nobel laureates, and investing through uncertainty; KKR’s Henry Kravis on private equity, culture, and global markets. And for more on large-cap stocks, listen to: Goldman Sachs Exchanges: Are the largest US stocks too dominant? 

As two of Europe's three largest economies head to the polls, what are markets telling us about the political landscape? Goldman Sachs Research's Sharon Bell and George Cole explain how France's looming parliamentary elections are affecting French stocks and bonds, while UK financial markets have been relatively stable ahead of the country's general election.

Goldman Sachs’ Christian Mueller-Glissmann and Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo discuss their outlooks for asset classes and portfolios heading into the second half of the year, as well as medium- and longer-term asset allocation shifts investors might make to accommodate a more dynamic macroeconomic backdrop.

The demand for power, driven in part by the rise of generative artificial intelligence, is set to grow to levels not seen in a generation. Goldman Sachs Research’s Carly Davenport, Alberto Gandolfi, and Brian Singer discuss the drivers behind their forecast of a surge in global power demand and the investments required to meet that demand.  Related articles on AI include AI is showing ‘very positive’ signs of eventually boosting GDP and productivity and Generative AI could raise global GDP by 7%. For more: Goldman Sachs Exchanges.

The Federal Reserve has historically led a relatively synchronized monetary policy cycle across the major economies, but this cycle seems to be shaping up differently. Goldman Sachs' Chief Economist and Head of Goldman Sachs Research Jan Hatzius, Peter Praet, former chief economist of the European Central Bank, and Maurice Obstfeld, former chief economist of the IMF, discuss the implications of central bank divergence for economies and markets. This episode explores the latest Top of Mind report, Central Bank Divergence: Room to Run?

On this episode of Goldman Sachs Exchanges, Goldman Sachs Research’s Alex Blostein joins moderator Allison Nathan to discuss the challenges and opportunities facing the private equity industry. Nathan also speaks with Global Banking & Markets’ Mike Nickols and Gina Lytle who share their perspectives on the types of deals that are happening today.  For more, read Private Equity Inflection Point, a new report from Goldman Sachs Investment Banking, which explores the strategic and financing opportunities in the private equity industry.